Rapid Assessment Of Typhoon Disaster Based On Case-based Reasoning

Typhoon is one of the most serious natural disasters over the world.And China is a country with high frequency of typhoon disaster,which causes huge economic losses and casualties every year.Taking effective disaster assessment methods can help to formulate relief plan and allocate relief goods,and to some extent reduce the loss of the disaster.As is known to all,the damage of typhoon disaster grows with time goes on.Moreover,speed and timeliness are always of most importance when faced with disaster rescue.Therefore,it is quite necessary to study typhoon assessment method to improve the speed.Based on case-based reasoning,this paper designs a typhoon assessment method by taking the suffering condition of historical similar cases as guidance,which can effectively solve the problem of poor assessment and timeliness caused by the lack of data and the complex model construction in typhoon disaster assessment.By taking a specific typhoon case for example and designing the experiment,the method is proved to be effective.This paper mainly contains the following parts.(1)Study of typhoon case representation and retrieval.Case representation and retrieval are the basis and premise of CBR.For the needs of typhoon assessment,we select the path and attribute information to construct typhoon case expression framework.And design a similarity calculation method to calculate typhoon path similarity and attribute similarity.Finally,a reasonable case retrieval process is established to retrieve historical typhoon cases.(2)Study of typhoon assessment method based on similar cases.Considering both typhoon hazard bearing information and the capacity to resistant disaster of the regional,a correction method of typhoon disaster is designed to solve the difference of years when doing a typhoon assessment.On this basis,we construct a typhoon assessment model which can support assessment on both single case and multiple cases.(3)Design and conduct experiment to verify the effectiveness of the method.Taking Typhoon Megi,the 17th typhoon of 2016,as the target case.It lasted from September 22nd to September 29th,and landed on Fujian Province.A typhoon case retrieval and disaster assessment experiment is carried out,and the effectiveness of each step in the retrieval process is analyzed.Moreover,the accuracy of disaster assessment is judged based on the damage data.The experimental result shows that the typhoon assessment method based on case-based reasoning has good accuracy.Furthermore,the method is simple and the data is easy to obtain,which makes it quite suitable for the rapid assessment of typhoon disaster.