Design And Development Of Rainfall Forecast Application System For Huanren Hydropower Station

In recent years,under the influence of large-scale human activities,the global climate has undergone great changes,extreme weather disasters have increased,torrential rain caused by flooding disasters occur frequently,the social and economic losses caused by flood disasters are becoming more and more serious.Against this background,the state has put forward new requirements for developing clean energy and improving the utilization rate of energy.In the actual application of the reservoir,the forecast of runoff has reached a certain level.Many reservoirs apply the flood forecast information to the reservoir scheduling,but only consider the flood in the ground rain simulation forecast.The forecast period is very limited.Taking full account of rainfall forecast information can significantly increase flood control and benefit of reservoir.With the continuous improvement of the level of the rainfall forecast and the development of the numerical forecast,it makes possible to apply the rainfall forecast information to the reservoir operation.Therefore,in this paper,based on the research and development of the decision support system project for hydrological monitoring and forecasting of national electric power plant,taking Huanren Hydropower Station as an example,the availability of rainfall forecast information and the analysis of its application are studied.The design and development of rainfall forecasting system are realized.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)The precision analysis of forecast data and the principle and method of frequency calculation are given.For the China Meteorological Administration,the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecast,the National Center for Atmospheric Research of the United States,Japan Meteorological Agency,the precision of rainfall forecast data is analyzed.The results show that although there is a small difference in the forecast level of each meteorological center,the forecast information of I~III grade rainfall reaches the available level.(2)Taking the upstream control basin of Huanren Hydropower Station as the research object,considering the characteristics of the full runoff storage in this area,the short-term and ten-day runoff forecasting models are established,respectively,to forecast the inflow runoff of Huanren Hydropower Station.The input side of the forecast chooses to use the ECMWF rainfall forecast data for the next 1~10 days.The results show that the forecast result of the next 24 hours rainfall forecast is better than that of only considering the landing rain.However,with the extension of the forecast period of rainfall,the precision of runoff forecast decreases,and the average qualified rate of forecast reaches 77%.(3)In view of the problem that rainfall forecast information is not fully utilized in the actual scheduling work,the rainfall forecasting application system is integrated and developed.The system uses B/S structure,the development language is Java,the Oracle management system is used to develop the back-end database,the lightweight Spring MVC framework is used to construct the system,and the Web end uses Ajax dynamic interactive technology.The system realizes the precision analysis of multi-source meteorological forecast data and the function of querying rainfall at different frequencies under different forecast periods.It has the characteristics of real-time updating,extensibility,easy operation and so on.