The Susceptibility Assessment Of Debris Flow Disaster In Yecheng County,Xinjiang

Ye Cheng County,with a mountainous topography of 81.9% and a plain topography of 18.1%,is located in the southwestern part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.The complex geo-environmental conditions in Ye cheng County and the continuous torrential rains from May to September plays an important role in the development and formation of debris flow.The debris flow disasters are induced by the differences in landform,engineering geological conditions,structural conditions,water sources,land cover types,and human engineering activities.Judging from the history of geological disasters from 1998 to 2016,tens of thousands of villagers,buildings,bridges,roads,traffic safety,infrastructure,and tourist attractions were threatened because of debris flow disasters,and the economic losses have reached millions of yuan.So far,the most important is that the number of casualties caused by geological disasters in Ye cheng County is more than 65 people.Under the background of the research area and based on the full collection of existing data,field investigation and indoor consolidation etc.the paper studied the distribution rules and formation conditions of debris flow in Ye Cheng County.Because of the lack of expression of debris flow elements verified by field investigation,the response factors are extracted according to the existing debris flow point elements and intersecting watershed.According to the actual situation of the study area,the three major conditions and influencing factors induced by debris flow,the reasons for the intensity of debris flow are different.The influencing factors are divided into necessary conditions and impact conditions,and the slope,engineering geological rock group,and annual rainfall,faults,vegetation coverage,roads,surface water intake,mines,and earthquakes were selected to used as evaluation factors.Furthermore,the data were collected and pre-processed based on the ArcGIS software platform,thus the data was integrated and a basic database and evaluation model were established.With the aid of GIS technology platform,the quotient evidence weight model was used for single factor analysis and weighted Logistic regression superposition model for comprehensive multi-factor analysis.The necessary conditions and influence conditions were analyzed and synthesized,and the comprehensive quantitative assessment of the susceptibility of the study area was finally calculated.Results: According to the analysis results of necessary conditions and influence conditions,it can be seen that the necessary conditions play a leading role in the initiation of debris flow.In order to reflect the possibility of damage in the study area,we corrected on the basis of quantitative evaluation.Therefore,by using GIS technology platform,the vulnerability comprehensive evaluation was calculated by using the given weight superposition model of bearing factor.On this basis,the risk assessment results of debris flow are obtained by multiplying with the risk assessment model,and the geological basis is given for disaster reduction and disaster prevention engineering.Overall,quantitative evaluation is reliable in delineating susceptibility work.