Study On Macro Simulation&prediction Model Of The Urban Heat Island In Nanchang

With the development of the society,people demand to live in a city where the air quality is high and the living facilities benefit their health.In the process of rapid urbanization,problems including city expansion,population expansion,dense buildings and surface ARTIFICIATION lead to a series of environmental consequences which burdens the city.Nanchang,the capital city of Jiangxi Province,is one of the most potential cities in China.In recent years it has been developing rapidly and its urban spatial structure changes rapidly.However,the Urban heat island effect in this city is also becoming more and more serious.Therefore,the study of the intensity and influencing factors of the hot island effect in the developing cities has a practical significance for the ecological construction of the city.Basing on the main data source from the image materials in October 31,2005,October 26,2009,October 5,2013 and September 27,2016 and referring to past statistic records of Nanchang city,the passage uses methods of RS technology,GIS analysis and mathematical modeling to accomplish the research on dynamic analysis,influence of factor contribution rate calculation,simulation and prediction and the heat island effect in Nanchang city.First,using the method of radiative transfer to realize the inversion action of the surface temperature in Nanchang City,and using the measured data from the meteorological station of the day to analyze the accuracy of the action results.Then basing on the results,using the method of density segmentation to calculate the thermal environment strength and explore the influence of Nanchang city development pattern on the city thermal environment.Second,analyzing how the city underlying surface affect the thermal environment of the city with the land use classification results.And through the single factor correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis of surface index and surface temperature,we can work out the relativity between the surface temperature and quantitative index system.Third,after analyzing the influencing factors on the heat island effect in Nanchang city,select these influencing factors and study how these factors affect the heat island effect.Fourth,constructing data models based on the GM(0,N)and GM(1,1)to simulate and forecast the Nanchang heat island effectThrough research and analysis,the results show that:(1)From 2005 to 2016,the land surface temperature in Nanchang is closely related to the development of the city.With the expansion of urban space,the surface temperature distribution is more and more dispersed,and the heat island effect is obviously strengthened.(2)The intensity of urban heat island effect is related to the underlying surface types.Through the analysis of land use space,it is found that the natural surface of vegetation and water can inhibit the land surface temperature,and the surface area of man-made buildings can promote the land surface temperature.(3)The influence factors of the heat island effect in different cities are different.The influencing factors of heat island effect in Nanchang are: total population > LPG consumption > urban construction area > Greenland area > precipitation > exhaust emissions > GDP > industrial gross value > natural gas consumption.(4)The GM(0,N)and GM(1,1)simulation of the heat island effect model can meet the precision requirement,shows that the impact of human factors on the heat island effect in Nanchang city is becoming more and more serious heat island effect simulation model,forecast model shows that 2017-2026 years Nanchang had obvious heat island effect the heat island effect.