Efficiency Evaluation Of Undesirable Elements With Time Lag And Its Application

Production efficiency analysis is an important research area in modern management theory.In the practice of management,it is often necessary for decision makers to analyze the production efficiency of similar types of production activities that contain undesirable factors during multiple periods.As for the undesirable factors,the existing researches mainly focus on the current production efficiency analysis of the decision making units,and rarely discuss the time lag effect,which influences the later production efficiency.Meanwhile,the time lag effect of undesirable factors widely exists in modern production management practices.Thus,to explore the undesirable factors' time lag effect in multi-period production efficiency analysis is a major issue for management practice and management control both in theory and practice.This thesis starts from the issue of time lag effect of production factors and then the evaluation of multi-period productivity and productivity index under three types of scenarios,these scenarious are:time lag effect of inputs factors,time lag effect of undesirable outputs factors,and time lag effect both inputs and undesirable outputs,respectively.The main research results are as follows:(1)Evaluating and applying DEA production efficiency in multiple periods with time lag effect of inputs.A multi-period DEA efficiency evaluation method and a DEA-Malmquist productivity index analysis method are proposed under the assumption that variable returns to scale with time lag effect of inputs,and they are applied to the production efficiency analysis of China's commercial banks.We found that;The time lag effect of fixed assets has a negative impact on the growth of the average operating efficiency of state-owned commercial banks and has a positive impact on the growth of the average operating efficiency of joint-stock commercial banks;Technological progress has a dominant effect on the productivity index of China's commercial banks.Improving the technological progress of commercial banks will greatly promote the productivity of commercial banks in China.(2)Evaluating and applying DEA production efficiency in multiple periods with time lag effect of undesirable outputs.The DEA efficiency evaluation method and the DEA-Malmquist productivity index method are put forward and applied to the analysis of the production efficiency with time lag effect of undesirable outputs of commercial banks in China.The research results show that the average efficiency of state-owned commercial banks is lower than the national average efficiency under the time lag effect of non-performing loans;the time lag effect of non-performing loans will significantly impact on the evaluation of commercial banks' DEA efficiency;the productivity of China's commercial banks is mainly affected by technological progress.(3)Evaluating and applying DEA production efficiency in multiple periods with time lag effect of both inputs and undesirable outputs.The DEA efficiency evaluation method and the DEA-Malmquist productivity index evaluation method with time lag effect between inputs and undesirable outputs are constructed,and these methods are applied to the analysis of the production efficiency of China's commercial banks.The results show that:state-owned commercial banks have the lowest efficiency,the efficiency of joint-stock commercial banks is a little bit higher,and the urban commercial banks achieve the highest efficiency;the double time lag effects of inputs and undesirable outputs on the productivity of commercial banks are leaded by the technological progress;without consideration of double time lag effects of inputs and undesirable outputs,the actual productivity of commercial banks tends to be overestimated.