Influencing Factors Of Financial Revenue And Forecast Of Financial Revenue In Gansu Province

Gansu Province is one of China's economicallv underdeveloped regions.The long-term dilemma it faces is that it is difficult to increase fiscal revenue,but it requires a lot of expenditure.At present.,China's economy is showing a new normal.Under the pressure of declining economic growth,how to maintain the stability of fiscal revenue in Gansu Province is also a major problem.Therefore.it is of great,significance to scientifically analyze and accurately predict the fiscal revenue by exploring the key economic factors affecting Gansu's fiscal revenue and establishing a fiscal revenue forecasting model.There are many economic factors affecting local fiscal revenue.In order to deeply explore the key factors affecting Gansu's fiscal revenue,this paper selects relevant data of Gansu Province from 1994 to 2016,based on Lasso,Adaptive Lasso and SCAD methods.The 39 economic factors affecting the fiscal revenue of Gansu Province were screened separately,and the NMSE values corresponding to the three models were calculated by the 5-fold cross-validation method,so that the screening results of the three models were compared and analyzed.The results show that for Gansu Province s fiscal revenue data,the Lasso method selects 14 important factors from 39 economic factors,and the comprehensive performance of model interpretability and accuracy is better than adaptive Lasso and SCAD Method,so this paper chooses to use the screening result of the Lasso method in the subsequent prediction model.In order to further study the relationship between economic factors and fiscal revenue:after the variable selection,this paper estimates and establishes the rela-tionship between key economic factors which selected by Lasso method and fiscal revenues by semi-parametric regression theory.A partial linear partial additive model is used to predict the trend of Gansu's fiscal revenue in the next three years.Then,the results of the screening of influencing factors were compared with those of Yunnan Province,and the current economic environment and poli-cies were used to analyze the screening results and forecast results.Finally,the policy recommendations for increasing fiscal revenue were put forward.The analysis results show that the fiscal revenue of Gansu Province in the next three years is generally maintaining a growth trend,but the growth rate is decreasing year by year.The economic factors that have an important impact,on Gansu s fiscal revenue are:tax revenue,science and technology expenditure,total urban population at the end of the year,per capita disposable income of rural residents,consumption level of rural residents,natural population growth rate,total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,in-dustrial added value,construction industry added value,financial industry added value,primary industry added value,total imports,international tourism foreign exchange income and total energy consumption.The few suggestions made by this are:First,support,local key enterprises and increase income sources.Stable tax revenue is the guarantee of fiscal revenue.Gansu Province should learn from the excellent,experience of other provinces,based on the existing historical and cultural resources and ecological environment of the province,and identify and support key enterprises that are in line with the development of the province.Such as tourism,pharmaceutical processing industries and so on.So that can increase the stability of tax sources.Second,increase government investment in science and technology develop-ment.Under the current economic environment of the new normal,the develop-ment of science and technology is an important force to promote the optimiza-tion of social economic structure and stimulate economic development.Gansu Province still has a large gap in funding for scientific and technological devel-opments compared with other provinces.Therefore,it is necessary to further increase investment in science and technology research,drive economic optimiza-tion in the province with scientific and technological development,and use science and technology to solve ecology and The contradiction between economic devel-opment.Third,accelerate the development of urbanization.The development of ur-banization will effectively promote the growth of fiscal revenue.The government should formulate a scicentific development strategy on the premise of fully con-sidering the challenges brought by large-scale population transfer to urban devel-opment,and coordinate urban development and main functional area planning,ecological environment.The issue of protection,improve the construction of ur-ban infrastructure and public services,provide housing security,create urban jobs and equal employment opportunities,provide protection for rural residents to urban transfer,and accelerate the pace of urbanization.Fourth,increase the income of rural residents.The rural residents in Gansu Province account for a relatively high proportion.Therefore,improving the in come of rural residents and improving the quality of life of rural residents are the key to improving the province's fiscal revenue.The government should vigorously promote the application of science and technology in agricultural production and guide rural residents to carry out agricultural production activities in a more sci-entific and efficient manner.In addition,it is necessary to vigorously develop the secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas,provide support for talents and technologies,promote the integration of local agricultural production,process-ing and sales,and form brand awareness,and establish an agricultural industry management model with local brand identity.Fifth,vigorously develop emerging industries and accelerate the transforma-tion of economic structure.China is currently in the transition period between old and new kinetic energy.Gansu Province should follow the pace of the country,change traditional industries and economic models,focus on developing emerg-ing industries,promote the rapid growth and development of new industries and new technologies,and accelerate the transformation of the province's economic structure.Sixth,seize the development,opportunities of the" Belt and Road" and expand the scale of foreign trade.As a province along the Silk Road Economic Belt,Gan-su Province's" One Belt,One Road" strategy has brought,new opportunities for the development of Gansu Province.Gansu Province should seize the opportuni-ty,vigorously develop import and export trade,and further expand the province.The scale of foreign trade.At the same time,we should actively develop and improve the transportation construction in the province,build a strong logistics network,and provide guarantee for trade.