Urban Distribution Demand Forecast And Location Path Optimization Based On High Speed Rail Express

With the transformation and upgrading of the national logistics industry and the continuous deepening of the reform of the railway freight supply side,the railway enterprises have launched the high-speed rail express logistics business in order to integrate into the diversified logistics market.Driven by the strong driving of e-commerce,"Internet +" and the new retail model,HSR Express relies on the advantages of high-speed railway network resources and quickly gains a foothold in the logistics express market with its characteristics of "high timeliness,high accuracy rate and high standards".However,due to factors such as insufficient infrastructure construction at the end and low service capacity,it is difficult to achieve scale,intensification and efficient operation.How to scientifically analyze and optimize the high-speed rail express city distribution network is the top priority for solving the "last mile" problem of high-speed rail express.Through the literature review of relevant market forecasting at home and abroad,location selection of the distribution center,and optimization of vehicle routing,it is known that there is relatively little research on market demand forecasting and distribution network optimization involving high-speed rail express city distribution.Based on this,this paper first systematically analyzes the development of China's high-speed rail express transportation;then uses ARIMA time series,multiple linear regression,BP neural network,Shapley value weight distribution method and Logit share rate model to predict the demand of high-speed rail express city distribution market;Finally,through the analysis and description of the high-speed rail express city distribution network optimization problem,under the constraints of customer time window,simultaneous delivery,vehicle capacity limitation,etc.,a new distribution center with the minimum total system cost as the objective function is constructed.The address model,and the vehicle path optimization model with the minimum sum of distribution cost and time penalty cost as the objective function;and the high-speed rail express distribution network in Haidian District of Beijing as the research object,the Lingo software and simulated annealing algorithm are used to verify the calculation and calculate The best urban distribution network optimization scheme is obtained,which verifies the applicability of the model.The new distribution center location model and vehicle path optimization model constructed in this paper can optimize the high-speed rail express city distribution network reasonably and effectively,and provide theoretical support for China Railway Express to improve the existing urban distribution network and develop high-speed rail express business.