Research On Water Resources Dispatching Model And Implementation Of Dispatching Decision Support System In Hutuo River Basin

Total water use control is an important means to implement the most strict water resources management system in China.Hutuo River basin is located in the country's most water-scarce north China Plain and Shanxi Plateau Junction area,in recent years,the rapid economic and social development and the continuous enhancement of human activities,resulting in the Hutuo River Basin water resources spatial and temporal distribution,the contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent.Water scheduling,as an important means of optimal allocation of water resources,is of great significance for realizing the efficient utilization and fine management of water resources in the Hutuo River basin.Based on the medium and long term runoff forecast and water demand prediction,and combined with the general software framework of water resources dispatching,this paper constructs a water resource dispatching model to meet the needs of watershed dispatching through system customization and two development.Firstly,on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of annual and interannual variation of runoff in the Hutuo River basin,using the correlation coefficient method,the forecast factors with high correlation between runoff sequences are selected from 130 atmospheric circulation indexes,and the medium and long term runoff forecast model of Hutuo River basin is constructed by combining BP artificial neural network model.And verify the applicability of the model.Secondly,based on the present situation of water resources development and utilization in the Hutuo River basin,the water use structure of the administrative region is considered comprehensively,the water use index and water quota of the river basin are analyzed,and the watershed water demand Prediction model is established according to the quota method to predict the future water use change in the Hutuo River basin.Then,taking the annual dispatching plan of the Hutuo River basin as an example,the multi-objective optimal scheduling model of Cascade Reservoir Group in Hutuo River basin is established by analyzing the competitive relationship between water demand and reservoir storage in watershed,aiming at the minimum supply and demand gap of watershed and the maximum water level of reservoir,and two multi-objective optimization algorithms are used to solve it.The simulation results show that the DE algorithm is superior to the POA algorithm in the supply and demand gap of watershed and the sum of water level at the end of Reservoir.Finally,based on the runoff forecasting model,water demand forecasting model and water resources dispatching model,the decision support system of water resources dispatching in Hutuo River basin is developed on the framework of general software of water resources dispatching.The results show that the research on water resources dispatching model in Hutuo River basin is of great significance to the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system water consumption control index and the realization of the efficient utilization of watershed water resources.At the same time,the decision support system of water resources dispatching in Hutuo River basin based on the general software framework of dispatching has a very good demonstration effect on the promotion of Water Conservancy informationization in similar watersheds.