Analysis And Prediction Of Influencing Factors Of Freight Volume In The Yangtze River Delta Based On Regression Model And Time Series Model

In recent years,with the rapid development of the national economy,China's logistics industry has achieved rapid development and improvement in both infrastructure construction and personnel training.As an important indicator to measure the national economy of the country,logistics plays a vital role in the development of the regional economy.As the starting point of modern logistics and electric business,the Yangtze River Delta is the intersection of major strategic areas such as "one belt and one road",the Yangtze River economic belt and the national free trade zone,it is very important to study the factors affecting the flow of materials.As an important indicator to measure the logistics industry,the volume of freight transport and the reasonable forecast of it will directly affect the economic development trend of the Yangtze River Delta region,which is crucial for accelerating industrial upgrading,manufacturing transformation,and integration of domestic and foreign trade.This paper mainly combines the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.By reading a large number of references and the existing results of the research on the factors affecting the comprehensive freight volume,seven important impact indicators are selected.First,a descriptive comprehensive statistical analysis of the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta region;Then by using principal component regression,ridge regression,Lasso regression and SPSS statistical analysis software to analyze the three major industrial output values,social fixed assets investment,line transportation length,total retail sales of social consumer goods and total import and export volume of goods in the Yangtze River Delta region from 1993 to 2017.Cancellation of variables while eliminating multiple collinearities,it is concluded that the output value of the secondary industry,the length of the line transportation,and the total import and export volume of goods are the most important factors affecting the freight volume in the Yangtze River Delta region;Reuse the ARIMA model and the cubic exponential smoothing method in time series analysis to model the total freight volume in the Yangtze River Delta for nearly 25 years,and predict that the freight volume in the Yangtze River Delta region will continue to grow in the next five years,the annual growth rate is about 3%,it is predicted that the freight volume of the Yangtze River Delta in 2020 will reach 600000 tons for the first time.