Analysis On The Relationship Between Disaster Factors Of Mountain Disaster System And Disaster Prediction Method

China is one of the few countries in the world where natural mountain disasters are frequent and serious.In recent years,various mountain disasters have occurred f requently.These disasters have complex formation mechanisms,and they are sudden and symbiotic when they occur,and the resulting harms bring huge losses to people's lives and property.Therefore,it is particularly important to analyze the relationship between the disaster factors of mountain disaster system and the method of disaster p rediction.This paper is based on a variety of mathematical methods and physical ana lysis,the causes of disasters and development process,rapid assessment,comprehensi ve fortification,engineering applications,Methodological research is carried out in fiv e aspects of chain disaster assessment.For the analysis of mountain disaster system,we must first establish the cause a nd development process of the clear mountain disaster system,and understand the rel ationship between the disaster factors.For the logic with relatively clear logic,the ac cident tree analysis method is used to construct the accident tree map.The relationsh ip between factors and the potential causes of accidents are found.When there are many factors and their relationships are complicated,the interpretative structural mode l method is used to construct a multi-level hierarchical structure with clear logic and clear layers,which is clearly reflected in the form of graph theory.The cause of th e disaster and the development process.After a deep understanding of the disaster fo rmation and development process,the disaster prediction has become particularly clear.The disaster prediction of the mountain disaster system can be analyzed from its ow n,engineering,environment,fortification,etc.,which makes the research even more Comprehensive and practical.In the rapid assessment of the mountain disaster system,the combination of the analytic hierarchy process and the matter-element analysis m ethod is used to quickly assess the existing state from known parameters,and the dis aster trend is obtained.When comprehensively fortifying the development of the disas ter,Based on the meta-analysis,the false negative rate and false positive rate are intr oduced,and the optimal comprehensive membership degree of the annual fortification program is explored in units of years.In order to analyze the relationship between disaster system and disaster and environment,the interaction matrix is used to evalua te the intensity of each factor in the system,and the dominant attributes,subordinate attributes and structural importance of each factor are obtained.The system interacti on is the research object.The complex multi-level landslide is taken as an example t o introduce the line plan.Through the prediction analysis between multiple systems,t he quantitative analysis of the relationship between engineering and environment is ca rried out,and the balance between the two is sought.Finally,in order to explore the development of disaster chain,Bayesian network tools are used to model the mount ain disaster chain.For the uncertainty in disasters,Monte Carlo simulation,historical data,expert experience,etc.are used to obtain probability values.Then the joint pro bability of the whole chain is obtained,which provides the basis for engineering appl ication and disaster fortification.By constructing the complete Bayesian network and probabilistic reasoning,the posterior probability of the structure in a certain state is o btained,and the relevant departments are well prepared in advance.Provide a basis f or disaster fortification.The application methods mentioned in the paper are not independent of each oth er.These methods can be directly combined with each other and applied to the whol e process analysis of mountain disasters.Each mathematical method has its applicatio n characteristics and can be applied more comprehensively for its characteristics.