Research Of Cyclic Effect And Its Application Based On Panel Data

The interaction between the independent variable and the dependent variable forms the cyclic effect.The cyclic effect is a generalization of the effect model,which enables us to consider the interaction mechanism of the independent variable and the dependent variable.Besides,being widely used in the field of psychology,it can also explain some complex economic phenomena.Therefore,expanding the cyclic effect model not only enriches the theoretical knowledge,but also has important practical significance.Based on the existing cyclic effect model,the paper establishes a new model with the mediated moderator.And,panel data model is used in this model.This model can not only make good use of the advantages of panel data,but also can measure the interaction path and intensity of each influencing factor in the cyclic process.The main work of the paper is as follows:Firstly,we expand the existing cyclic effect model.We establish the cyclical model with a mediated moderator that combines the panel data model with the existing cyclic effect model.Besides,considering that the moderator variables often have lag effect of the independent variables in practice,the paper also establishes the lag cyclic effect model based on panel data.Secondly,the paper provides a method of parameter estimation and test of the cyclic panel data model with the mediated moderator.For different types of panel circulation effect models,we prove that the ordinary least square estimation is not unbiased and consistent estimation and the two-stage least square method is unbiased.Finally,we use the established cyclic effect model to analyze the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.The result shows that there is cyclic effect between economic growth and energy consumption.The technological progress is the mediator in the cyclical progress,and the fixed asset investment plays a moderator role and part of the moderating effect comes from technological progress.Due to the large difference in the economic development level and energy consumption among provinces in China,the economic provinces have higher technical storage and faster development.Meanwhile,we can see that the lag moderator cyclic effect is more able to explain the economic phenomena.In this paper,the general cyclic effect model is extended to the time series and panel data model.We provide the condition of model identification and estimation method of the mediated moderator model for different types of panel data model.In addition,the two-stage least square method is proved to be unbiased in estimating different types of panel cyclic effect models.Furthermore,the expanded new models are used in the empirical analysis of the energy consumption and economic growth.The results show that they can help us find the interaction mechanism among the economic variables.