Research On Urban Bulid-up Area Expansion And Driving Force Based On DMSP/OLS Data

Along with the rapid development of the national economy,the current urbanization process in China has never appeared in the history of countries around the world.The urban space is constantly carrying out the growth model of “internal filling and external extension”.The urban spatial form is the city.One of the important manifestations of spatial evolution,urban built-up areas are an important component of urban space.How to use the existing technology to effectively monitor and analyze the expansion of urban built-up areas in the process of urbanization,it is meaningful to provide reference for the rational planning of the city.This paper takes Jiangsu Province as the research object,using the nighttime lighting data of 2001,2005,2009,and 2013,the Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook of 2001-2017,and the China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook of 2001-2017 as the basic data,using the landscape index,Geostatistical indicators and other analytical methods,qualitative and quantitative study of urban spatial morphology from two provincial and municipal scales of Jiangsu Province,analysis of the laws and characteristics of urban spatial morphological evolution in Jiangsu Province,comparing the development of different regions,and analyzing differences Reasons for formation;discuss the impact of natural environment,population factors,economic factors,traffic factors and policy factors on urban built-up areas,and use principal component analysis and regression analysis to determine the main driving factors;use the data of the built-up area in previous years to build a gray model to achieve the completion Area land use forecast.Research indicates:(1)It is feasible to extract the results of urban built-up areas by using nighttime lighting data,which can be used for urban space research.On the provincial scale,there are more built-up plaques in Jiangsu Province during the study period,and the connectivity index and aggregation index are both rising.The trend indicates that the plaques in the built-up areas of Jiangsu Province are constantly gathering,the connectivity is gradually increasing,and the urban built-up areas tend to be concentrated.On the city scale,the annual expansion rate and expansion area are shown in 2001-2013.The year is a high-speed period of urbanization development in Jiangsu Province.Urbanization has reached a high level.The expansion range has a clear gradient distribution in space,and the expansion speed has temporal differences.The expansion intensity index shows that Jiangsu Province in 2001-2013 13 The urbanization of prefecture-level cities is developing rapidly,and the spatial structure of cities is changing drastically.In the analysis of spatial morphology,the compactness index and fractal dimension of different cities vary from year to year,indicating that there are regional differences in urban development patterns;In the urban built-up area-population elasticity coefficient and the coefficient of the allometric growth model show the construction of Jiangsu Province The expansion and population growth is not appropriate to common problems existing in the development of cities.(2)Study the driving factors of urban built-up area expansion through single factor analysis and multi-factor comprehensive analysis.The results of principal component analysis and regression analysis show that economic development is the main driving force for the expansion of urban built-up areas in Jiangsu Province,and transportation factors are also the main factors.In addition,natural factors,demographic factors,and policy factors also have different degrees of impact on the expansion of built-up areas.(3)Based on the grey prediction model constructed from the land area data of the built-up areas of Jiangsu Province and Nanjing City in 2001-2013,the prediction model performed well in the test data from 2014 to 2017.The model was evaluated by various test methods,and the results showed the model.It is more suitable for medium and long-term predictions,and forecasts for the built-up area of the built-up areas of Jiangsu Province and Nanjing City from 2018 to 2025.