Research On Integrated Loss Assessment Of Regional Earthquake-Flood Disaster Based On Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

Earthquake,flood and other natural disasters occur frequently,which not only causes serious economic losses,but also makes heavy casualties,which is a major obstacle to the realization of social and economic sustainable development in our country.Therefore,it is necessary to effectively assess the losses such as earthquake,flood and so on,in order to take timely and targeted measures to reduce their impact.At present,the research on disaster loss assessment is mainly limited to the study of single disaster species,and does not fully consider the impact of the surrounding areas of the affected area,so there are some problems,such as low assessment accuracy,assessment model is not applicable and so on.It is not possible to effectively assess and manage integrated disasters.In view of this,based on the regional disaster system theory,disaster loss theory and spatial measurement theory,the integrated loss assessment of regional earthquake-flood disaster is studied in this paper.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of the influence of the risk of hazard factors and the vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies on the integrated loss of earthquake-flood disaster,the two indexes are determined as secondary indexes and 10 tertiary indexes.The index system of integrated loss assessment of regional earthquake-flood disaster is established.Furthermore,considering the spatial effect and time lag of natural disaster loss,the dynamic spatial panel model integrated model of regional earthquake-flood disaster integrated loss is constructed.(2)Based on the integrated analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake and flood disasters in Yunnan Province,the integrated loss,integrated risk and integrated vulnerability index values are obtained by using the data of typical areas of Yunnan Province from 1991 to2015.Then the unconditional ML method is used to estimate the dynamic spatial SAR evaluation model of the integrated loss of earthquake-flood disaster in Yunnan Province.Then,with the help of the model,the integrated loss of earthquake-flood disaster in Yunnan area for 25 years is assessed and graded,and the effectiveness of the model is verified by comparing with the actual loss.(3)In the typical areas of Yunnan,there are significant positive spatial spillover effects and time lag effects in the integrated loss of earthquake-flood disaster.At the same time,the coefficient of integrated hazard is estimated to be0.7183,which is 3.7 times of the integrated vulnerability index.From the determination coefficient R~2,logarithmic likelihood value log L and the t value of coefficient significance test,compared with static panel model and non-spatial panel model,dynamic spatial panel model,the influence of many factors on the integrated loss of earthquake-flood disaster in Yunnan area is more significant,and the explanation degree of the change of integrated loss of disaster is higher.Compared with the other two models,the integrated loss value and loss grade of earthquake-flood disaster in Yunnan area assessed by dynamic spatial panel model are more in line with the actual value.Through theoretical research and case analysis,it is reasonable and feasible to use the risk index of hazard factors,the vulnerability index of disaster bearing body and the spatial dynamic panel model to construct the integrated loss assessment model of earthquake-flood disaster.The results of this paper can provide new ideas and methods for assessing the losses of other disasters in other areas,and can also formulate effective emergency management measures to reduce the losses of regional earthquake-flood disaster.