Monitoring And Analysis Of Land Spatial Change And Implementation Of Related System

The change of land use is a relatively popular research direction in recent years.In the process of vigorous development and construction,the blind expansion of the city will result in waste of resources,idle land,duplication of construction,and inconsistency between the system and the reality.In order to build a high-quality city,it is necessary to grasp the law of urban development.The research on this problem mainly focuses on building high-availability models,and deeply exploring the characteristics of urban development,in order to better understand the process and mechanism of urbanization,thereby realizing effective regulation in macro-planning and realizing land.Coordinated,healthy and sustainable development.From the study of land use change,the mainstream method is based on the model of cellular automata,and the land use transformation model is constructed according to different ways to achieve the simulation of land use change.This thesis takes the Chengdu city center circle(including 11 municipal districts)as the research area,analyzes the changes of land use from multiple angles,analyzes the driving factors of land use change,and builds the GCForest-CA model to forecast for changes in the study area over the next five years.The research in this thesis mainly includes the following aspects:(1)Collected three years of satellite data in the study area in 2008,2013 and 2018,and after interpretation,obtained the three-stage land use classification map for the land and analyzed the changes of land in area,spatial distribution,geographical shape and coordination with population and economic development.(2)From the perspectives of natural geography,location factors,human factors,policy factors,Multiple drivers factors,including elevation,slope,aspect,river,multi-level roads,railways,subways,two-level sites,population density,overall planning,are selected.Logical regression analysis was carried out on the driving factors and land type changes.(3)Based on the above research,the GCForest-CA model was constructed,and the model was used to predict and analyze the land change in 2023.The conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)The circle of Chengdu city center is developing coutinuously and despersedly,the construction land area is continuously increasing,mainly expanding to the north.and the compactness is continuously decreasing.The expansion of urban is unbalanced and blind.(2)Thechange of land use has a continuous and stable nature in the development and change of the five-year interval.(3)The overall accuracy of the GCForest-CA model for land use prediction is 84%,and the overall Kappa coefficient is 0.8.(4)In 2023,urban land use will further increase,the growth rate will remain stable and waters and forest land will remain unchanged,and the area of agricultural land will decrease.The degree of intensification of cities and towns will further decline,and the complexity of urban boundaries will increase.The trend of non-equilibrium expansion has increased,and the degree of blindness in urban development will be increased.