Research Of The Transition Of Planting Structure Caused By Climate Change

This paper built a DNDC—CGE model of China,by setting different values of irrigation,temperature and precipitation levels to form 16 scenarios to simulate the influence of climate change on agriculture industry and economy.Results show that single temperature rise increases the yields of corns,rice and sugarcane,single precipitation decline decreases the yields of most crops,and yields of rice and corns increases in mixed climate change scenario.CGE model results show that most crops yields of which increases finally decrease in price and value-added,and vice versa.As for the other industries in economy,those which are more correlated with agriculture industry suffer more obvious impacts,and as for the added value of industries and economy,temperature rise are beneficial for the economy while precipitation decline has the contrary influence,all the no irrigation and mixed climate change scenarios reduce the welfare of citizens,which means that climate change are more likely to inhibit the consumption of citizens,and the improvement of irrigation can repair the loss of economy and citizen's welfare.