Research Of Ground-based GPS Technology In Short-term Forecasting And Its Application In Rainfall-induced Landslide Disaster Prediction

China is the world's one of the countries most severely affected by landslide disasters.The annual May to September is the high incidence of landslides.According to statistics,more than 70 cities and 460 counties in China are threatened and endangered by landslide disasters,causing an average annual economic loss of 1.5 billion to 2.3 billion yuan.landslides caused by rainfall account for 90% of the total number of landslides.However,due to the complexity of various intrinsic factors such as the topography and geology of the slope and the randomness of external factors such as rainfall,forecasting landslide is the focus of the disaster prediction field.The research worked on the basis of the results of previous studies,in view of the principle of GPS meteorology,inferred the atmospheric precipitation of 73 continuous operation reference stations in Hunan Province,and explored the relationship between atmospheric precipitation and rainfall.Beside,based on the idea that heavy rainfall is one of the most important external factors for landslides,the relationship between rainfall process and slope deformation is discussed,and then the regional landslide hazard warning and prediction research is carried out.Studies are as follows:(1)Describes the method of ground-based GPS inversion of atmospheric precipitation systematically.Focus on the establishment of regional atmospheric weighted average temperature model.Establish a weighted average temperature model for Hunan Province.(2)The method of directly converting the atmospheric precipitation by using meteorological parameters is studied,and the direct conversion model of atmospheric precipitation with different precision is established.(3)BP neural network theory is applied to short-term rainfall prediction,and a GPS atmospheric precipitation rainfall prediction model based on BP neural network is established.(4)Based on the landslide displacement of Shankou Village in Lanshan County,the relationship between landslide displacement and rainfall is investigated,and a landslide monitoring and forecasting model is established.The monitoring results are used as an important basis for judging the steady state of landslide,guiding construction,feedback design and inspection and control effects,and providing a scientific basis for the time warning of regional landslide disasters.