The Study Of Regional Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Method

Water resource is not only a basic natural resource,but also a strategic economic resource.With the development of society,the deterioration of the earth environment has put pressure on water resources in all aspects.In order to cope with the impact of global climate changes and human activities on water resources system,relieve the pressure of water resources,and scientifically and reasonably develop,utilize and protect regional water resources,it is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of regional water resources.Based on the summary of domestic and foreign water resources assessment methods,the regional water resources vulnerability assessment under the changing environment has been divided into six steps:1.The construction of vulnerability key impact factors system.It is considered that different water resources condition in different regions lead to different vulnerability impact factors.The key impact factors of water resources vulnerability in different research regions are screened by principal component analysis,and divided into four categories:water quantity,underlying surface,human activities and water quality.The key impact factor system is established combined with DPSIR model;2.The determination of weight of impact factors,and the weight of impact factors is calculated by entropy weight method and principal component analysis method,which is a combination of subjective and objective methods,instead of determined by data calculation or subjective judgment alone;3.The classification of vulnerability level.The vulnerability classification method I and method ? are established,and the vulnerability evaluation is reasonably classified according to the technical evaluation requirements of impact factors and the basic situation of the research area;4.The establishment of vulnerability assessment model.Comparing completed set pair analysis model,multi-level fuzzy pattern recognition model and improved fuzzy clustering iteration model,the improved fuzzy clustering iteration model is recommended for regional water resources vulnerability assessment;5.The sensitivity analysis of impact factors.Single factor and multifactor sensitivity analysis of vulnerability impact factors are carried out by relative determination method,spider diagram method and orthogonal test method,and a judgment method of regional water resources vulnerability sensitive factors suitable for different regions is established,which can verify the evaluation model;6.Case study.Study of the vulnerability of water resources in Jinan City from 2000 to 2016 is researched in this subject-Firstly,19 impact factors of water resources vulnerability under changing environment are determined,10 key impact factors are selected to build the key influencing factor system,and then the weight is determined.The vulnerability of water resources in Jinan City is divided into five levels,1-5 levels are corresponding to the range,poor,medium,good and excellent of water resources.The vulnerability of water resources in Jinan City is evaluated by the improved fuzzy clustering iterative model.It can be seen that the water resources situation of Jinan city changed from medium to excellent and poor in 2000-2006,the fluctuation remained in the middle and poor in 2006-2013,decreased significantly to range in the year of 2014-2015,and improved again in 2016.The top three indicators of single factor vulnerability are effective utilization rate of irrigation water,per capita water resources and per capita GDP;the ranking of multi factor vulnerability is human activity index,water resources index,water quality index and underlying surface index.The rationality of the selected evaluation model is verified by sensitive factors,and the development model which is suitable for Jinan water resources management system is proposed.7.Conclusion and prospect.