| In the production of crude steel,the enterprise's choice of raw materials comes from two aspects:one is the metal ore or refining of the initial metal smelting process into crude steel,the other is through the use of scrap steel,return to the furnace for processing into finished products.Stainless steel has excellent properties such as corrosion resistance,heat resistance and low temperature resistance.China is the world's largest consumer of stainless steel and the world's largest producer and recycler of stainless steel waste.In the stainless steel production process,the use of waste stainless steel smelting accounted for less than 25%.But this proportion is still increasing year by year.With the increasing of the market position of stainless steel scrap,the price fluctuation of stainless steel scrap is paid more and more attention.In this paper,the price linkage between the scrap stainless steel market and the nickel iron market is analyzed theoretically,and then the price linkage between the scrap stainless steel market and the nickel iron market is tested empirically.In this paper,first of all,based on the cointegration theory to study stainless steel scrap iron and nickel price if there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the market price,through the Granger test,probe into the price of stainless steel scrap and the causal relationship between the price of nickel and iron,and then through the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition and multiple regression model research scrap stainless steel prices and mutual influence of the relationship between the price of nickel and iron.The observed data in this paper are from November 2011 to November 2019.During this period,China put forward the supply-side structural reform policy at the beginning of 2016.Therefore,this paper divides the research interval into two periods,the first period is from November 2011 to November 2016,and the second period is from November 2016 to November 2019.the co-integration relationship between the price of rebar steel and the price of recycled 201 stainless steel has changed.In the empirical analysis of the linkage relationship between price fluctuations,the EGARCH model is mainly used to model and estimate.The EGARCH model proves that the regenerative stainless steel market is more impacted by good news than bad news.Finally,some countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward according to the empirical results,so as to help enterprises avoid the price risk of the market of recycled stainless steel and nickel iron raw materials and improve the healthy and orderly development of the market of recycled stainless steel and raw ore. |
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