Study On The Evaluation Of Regional Land Resource Carrying Capacity

As a valuable material wealth of human society,land resources are an important carrier and platform for undertaking ecological protection,agricultural production,and urban construction.At present,the demand for land resources by the rapid development of the regional economy is still increasing,and the intensity of development and utilization is increasing.In the process,the contradictions between population,resources and the environment have become increasingly prominent;How to coordinate the rational,effective and sustainable use of land resources in the process of agricultural production,urban construction and ecological protection has become the focus of attention in the field of land.Although most of Henan Province,which belongs to plain terrain plain,has a good resource endowment,it is also inevitably accompanied by a series of natural resources and ecological environment problems in the process of industrialization and urbanization.The contradiction between the people's increasing pursuit of high-quality economic development and the responsibility of ensuring national food security as the core area of food production is increasingly prominent.Using Henan Province as a research area to carry out a single element evaluation of land resource carrying capacity,clarify the regional land resource carrying capacity rating,understand the regional background bearing capacity status and obstacles,and formulate different land development and utilization models and sustainable use of land resources The policy provides a scientific basis.This article sorts out the latest research progress on land carrying capacity at home and abroad.It is supported by theories related to land resource systems such as the theory of scarcity of land resources,systems theory,short board theory,and sustainable use of land resources.taking Henan Province and its sub-districts as research objects,The research on the status and obstacle factors of land resource carrying capacity in Henan Province and its sub-districts from 2000 to 2016 mainly includes the following three aspects:(1)Construct the land use transfer matrix of Henan Province based on the land use data interpreted by the remote sensing image of Henan Province,and quantitatively analyze the various land use transfer trends and land use characteristics and existing problems in Henan Province;(2)By constructing an evaluation index system of land resource carrying capacity and measuring it,the status of land resource carrying capacity and the spatial-temporal change trend in Henan Province and each sub-city are clarified,and on the basis of this,obstacle factors are diagnosed to find out the influential land resource carrying capacity Limiting factors;(3)Using the gray prediction model GM(1,1)to predict the carrying capacity of land resources in Henan Province in subsequent years and make recommendations and countermeasures.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From the perspective of time,except for slight fluctuations in individual years,the land resource carrying capacity of Henan Province generally shows a year-on-year upward trend.The bearing capacity level has increased from "lower" to "higher" level,and it shows a more obvious segmentation phenomenon.During the past 17 years,the evaluation value of the water and soil resource subsystem has been at a relatively high level and the change range is relatively small.The evaluation value of the ecological environment subsystem has shown a slow increase trend at a low level.These two subsystems serve as the basic support for the land resource system.Relatively stable;the evaluation values of the two sub-systems of social culture and economy are showing a rapid upward trend,indicating that with the increasing level of economic and cultural development in Henan Province,the progress of regional science and technology,the optimization of industrial structure and the carrying capacity of regional land resources The boosting effect is more significant.(2)From a spatial perspective,the land resource carrying index of 18 sub-regional cities in Henan Province from 2000 to 2016 showed an unbalanced phenomenon.The cities located on the edge of Henan Province,especially the mountainous area,have lower land resource carrying capacity indexes than other regions.In the four representative years,the same year contains only two adjacent levels of land resource carrying level,indicating that with the optimization and increase of the investment ratio of the four subsystems in each sub-city,the land resource carrying of each city The level difference is constantly narrowing,and the carrying level is constantly improving.At the end of the study period,only three prefecture-level cities in Zhengzhou,Xinxiang,and Xuchang were rated as "high",and the remaining 15 cities were rated as "higher".(3)Through the diagnosis of obstacle factors,it can be seen that the obstacle factors that affect the land resource carrying level of Henan Province and its subdivisions are mostly distributed in the water and soil resources and ecological environment subsystems.Among them,the main obstacles in the indicator layer have similar phenomena in some cities,although the ranking of the top 6 obstacle factors is different,the distribution of these 6 indicators in most prefecture-level cities includes per capita cultivated land area,per capita water resources,population density,and unit cultivated land area fertilizer usage,environmental protection investment as a percentage of GDP,investment in science and education funds,it can be seen that 5 of the top 6 indicators are distributed in the water and soil resources and ecological environment subsystems,indicating the basic and important status of the water and soil resources and ecological environment subsystems in ensuring the carrying capacity of land resources.Among the 18 prefecture-level cities,Zhengzhou,Luoyang,Xinxiang,Xuchang,Nanyang,Zhumadian,and Jiyuan,the top 6 obstacle factors for the three years of 2000,2005,and 2010,and the 2016 ranking The top 6 obstacle factors vary widely,with the passage of time,due to the dynamic changes in the natural resources,ecological environment,economic,and social and cultural subsystems in the regions,these prefectures and cities have been different from the obstacle factors that affect the regional land resource carrying capacity change trend in previous years.New changes appear,Obstacle factors have changed from being distributed in the economic,social,and cultural subsystems in previous years to being distributed in the soil and water resources and ecological environment subsystems,while the other 11 prefectures and cities have no significant changes in the barrier factor criteria that affect their land resource carrying levels.(4)By predicting the land resource carrying level in the subsequent years in Henan Province,it can be known that the overall land resource carrying in Henan Province will gradually increase from 2017 to 2022,and the change results have a certain continuity.During this capacity period,the land resource carrying index of Henan Province increased from 0.715 at the beginning of the forecast period to 0.891 at the end of the forecast period,and rose from the "higher" capacity to the "high" capacity,it shows that under the guidance of evaluation management,through active policy control,the four sub-systems of water and land resources,ecological environment,economy,and society and culture achieve healthy and sustainable development,and jointly promote the land resource carrying level in Henan Province to rise to a "high" level.