| Ports play an important role in promoting the economic development of cities.In order to develop the economy vigorously,many ports have been built in the coastal port cities of our country.However,there are many phenomena such as repeated construction of ports in the adjacent areas,vicious competition among ports and so on.The complex competition and unreasonable construction in the port group increase the difficulty for its further planning and construction.When the demand is uncertain,the port's freight demand can not be accurately predicted,and its investment and construction is more difficult.Therefore,considering the above factors,it is of great significance to study the regional port investment decision-making for promoting the regional economic development and improving the utilization rate of port resources.In this paper,a multi-objective optimization model considering port profit,port economic benefit,port social welfare and port resource utilization is established.The main research contents include:(1)This paper summarizes the definition of port group,the theory and application method of regional port investment,and then combs the research status at home and abroad from three aspects:port investment decision-making,regional port investment considering social welfare and regional port investment considering demand uncertainty.Finally,it summarizes the development status of ports in China,the investment and construction of five port groups,ports and regional economy Based on the analysis of economic relevance,it is found that ports play an important role in the development of regional economy,and limited by the slowdown of economic development,port supply is becoming saturated,and investment in port construction is on the decline.(2)The multi-objective optimization model of port investment under uncertain demand is constructed.Firstly,based on the stochastic programming method,the distribution function of uncertain demand is established,and then the related function expression is determined from the port profit,port spillover benefit,port social welfare,port resource utilization rate and other aspects.Finally,the multi-objective optimization model is established considering the constraints of port investment income and cargo flow distribution.A multi-objective particle swarm optimization(MOPSO)algorithm is designed for the model and solved by MATLAB software.(3)Based on the importance of port group in the development of regional economy in the Pearl River Delta,this paper selects the investment decision-making of port group in the Pearl River Delta for empirical analysis,calculates the best investment decision-making scheme of port,and puts forward effective development suggestions.The results are beneficial to improve the utilization rate of port resources,save investment resources,and provide theoretical support for regional port investment decision-making.The innovation of this paper lies in:Based on the regional economic development and social welfare,and taking into account the utilization rate of port resources,a multi-objective optimization model is constructed to coordinate the multi interests;the geometric Brownian motion distribution function is used to describe the demand uncertainty innovatively,and describe the demand volatility reasonably,so that the model is more practical. |
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