Research On Mine Land Prediction Based On Autologistic-CA-Markov Model

In recent years,with the gradual increase in the demand for mineral resources and the speed of their development,the land occupation pattern of mines has developed rapidly.This brings great challenges to the rational planning and layout of the mine land occupation.Therefore,the prediction research on the evolution of the land occupation of the mine and the future development direction is an important content to realize the rational planning of the development direction of the mine.Based on the remote sensing image data in 2015,2017 and 2019,this paper extracted the information of the mine land occupation in Xinluo district,Fujian province,analyzed and studied the regional difference,dynamic change characteristics and driving mechanism of mine occupation,and simulated and predicted the utilization pattern of the mine land occupation in 2021 by using the Autologistic-CA-Markov model.The main achievements are as follows:(1)Based on remote sensing image data in 2015,2017,and 2019,human-machine interactive interpretation method was used to extract the information of three-year mine land occupation,and the regional difference,dynamic change characteristics and transfer change process of mine's land occupation in xinluo district were obtained through cluster analysis,dynamic change analysis and Markov transfer matrix.In general,during 2015-2019,the area of each type of mine's land occupation increased to different degrees.Among which the area of restoration and treatment increased at the highest rate,followed by stope,transit site,mine construction and solid waste.(2)Based on the previous experience of the predecessors and combining the three aspects of natural resources,socioeconomics,and policy management,a preliminary selection of the driving factors that affect the change of the mine land occupation,The driving factors were screened and tested through principal component analysis,and three categories,including 16 major driving factors,were obtained.Through Autologistic regression analysis,the driving mechanism of the mine land occupation change and the optimal simulation scale were obtained.(3)In terms of evolutionary prediction models,the Autologistic-CA-Markov model was constructed,and the Autologistic regression model was used to generate the suitability diagram of the mine land occupation to influence the CA conversion rules,so as to solve the problem of the autocorrelation effect of the prediction space.The research shows that the accuracy of its prediction results is better than traditional CA-Markov model.Based on this,the land occupation pattern of mines of xinluo district in 2021 is predicted by the Autologistic-CA-Markov model.The prediction results show that in the next two years under the current development model,the area of various mine types in Xinluo district will increase in varying degrees,but the proportion of mines,such as stopes,transfer sites,mine construction and solid waste,in the total area of mines will decrease.Combined with the prediction results,corresponding suggestions are made for the future development of the mine's land occupation in Xinluo district.