Seismic Disaster Risk Research Of Power Grid Facilities

China is one of the countries with the most frequent earthquake activities and the most serious seismic disasters in the world.Due to its own characteristics,the power grid belongs to the weak part of the power system,which is easy to be damaged in strong earthquakes and cause outage accidents.In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy and the acceleration of urbanization process,the exposure of power grid facilities is increasing day by day,and the potential seismic disaster risk of power grid facilities will increase day by day.Therefore,finding defensive measures and quantitatively estimating the possibility and loss of China's power grid facilities that may suffer from seismic disasters of different intensities have become important issues to ensure the sustainable development of the national economy and the orderly life of the society.In order to research fully the seismic disaster risk of power grid facilities,based on the latest results of seismic risk analysis in the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China,the unevenness of earthquake occurrence in time and space are considered,the basic ground motion peak acceleration under the condition of the county-level administrative district government's site in Class II is selected as the representative value of the basic ground motion peak acceleration in the area,and the seismic hazard curves of different regions in mainland China are obtained by piecewise fitting.Then the seismic vulnerability model of power grid facilities and the power grid facilities asset distribution database of mainland China are established.Finally the possible seismic losses that may be suffered in mainland China's power grid in the future are predicted.The main work of this paper is as follows:1.The seismic hazard curve piecewise fitting method is proposed.Taking a representative site in Mengzi,Yunnan as an example,the seismic hazard curve obtained by the piecewise fitting method is compared with the seismic hazard curve obtained by the fifth-generation seismic zoning map method.Based on the latest results in Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China,the basic ground motion peak acceleration under the condition of the county-level administrative district government's site in Class II is selected as the representative value of the basic ground motion peak acceleration in the area,and ignoring the influence of site conditions on ground motion parameters,the seismic hazard curves of different regions in mainland China are obtained by piecewise fitting.2.A list of various power grid facilities is listed and seismic vulnerability classification is carried out.The seismic damage index is selected as an index to quantitatively divide the seismic damage status of power grid facilities,and the seismic damage status of power grid facilities is divided into five levels.Based on the seismic damage data of the Sichuan Power Grid in the Wenchuan earthquake,a seismicvulnerability model of power grid facilities is established and the goodness of fit is tested.3.Based on the electric power yearbook and provincial power company statistics,a two-level distribution method is used to establish a power grid facilities stock database of mainland China.According to the general cost standard of the State Grid Corporation of China,while considering the impact of social and economic development on the cost of power grid facilities,the power grid facility cost list is obtained.A power grid facilities asset distribution database of mainland China containing 2,854 county-level evaluation units is established.4.Using the seismic hazard obtained by piecewise fitting of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China,combining with the seismic vulnerability model of power grid facilities and the power grid facilities asset distribution database of mainland China,a seismic loss expectation model of power grid facilities with county-level administrative districts as the evaluation unit is established,and the expected seismic loss and the expected seismic loss rate of mainland China's power grid facilities at different time scales in the future are predicted.The results show that the power grid facilities in the North China,China's southeast coastal area,China's north-south seismic belt area and Xinjiang area have higher earthquake disaster risks,such areas should focus on strengthening the power grid seismic disaster risk prevention.5.A seismic loss exceeding probability model of power grid facilities with county-level administrative districts as the evaluation unit is established,and the probability of seismic loss exceeding the given value and the probability of seismic loss rate exceeding the given value in different time scales in the future are predicted by taking Linzhou,Henan Province as an example.The risk analysis method proposed in this paper can be used as a reference for the government and the power industry in formulating seismic prevention and mitigation plans and countermeasures...