Research On Simulation Of Hospital Information Construction Based On System Dynamics

Objective: The mathematical modeling method is used to sort out the feedback relationship between the main elements in the hospital information construction system on the basis of analyzing and analyzing the development history and development characteristics of hospital information construction in China.The hospital is established by fitting a large number of realistic data.The information system dynamics model simulates and predicts the development trend of China's hospital information in the next10 years.Based on sensitivity analysis,scenario planning,and policy simulation,five types of hospital informatization construction models are designed and compared for simulation,to explore the development model of hospital informatization construction that is suitable for China's actual situation.By adjusting the corresponding variable parameters,different development methods and construction priorities are analyzed.The impact of the hospital's willingness and ability to carry out informatization construction work has important theoretical and practical significance for grasping the law,development trend,and work focus of the hospital's informatization construction.It aims to provide an important reference for government departments to formulate macroeconomic policies and also for the hospital.Informatization decision makers provide a reliable basis for insight into trends.Methods: This study uses the relevant data in the "Chinese Hospital Informationization Survey Report CIO Edition" as the main data foundation by the Information Professional Committee of the Chinese Hospital Association(CHIMA),and uses the CAS complex adaptive system theory to analyze the feedback relationship between the main elements of the hospital informationization construction system.The system dynamics(SD)modeling method is mainly used to construct the SD flow diagram through system structure analysis,boundary determination,modeling assumptions,and causality diagram drawing.Through regression analysis,delay function,selection function,table function,step function,Trend extrapolation method,arithmetic mean method and other methods to determine the functional relationship and parameters,and perform intuitiveness,effectiveness,and sensitivity tests to establish a system dynamic model of hospital information construction;select the information construction willingness and the capacity of construction capacity to be sensitive Based on the analysis,the sensitivity variables of the willingness and ability level of informatization construction are clarified.Through scenario planning,five informatization willingness and ability development modes are designed,the relevant variable parameter floating ranges are adjusted,and the future work focus and strength of informatization construction are defined.Results:(1)The aspirations of the informatization construction,and construction ability,hospital revenue and related human,financial,existing informatization level,investment budget over the next two years,the main information system implementation seven stock in 2008-2012,the overall level is low,the slowly rising trend,in 2013-2018,the overall increases volatility,including sample hospitals gross income is about 200 billion yuan,the lowest is about 325 billion yuan,the highest lowest investment budget is about $2.5 billion over the next two years,is about 7.5 billion yuan,highest hospital main information system implementation of the lowest rates of 0.3,the highest is about0.475,The trend of willingness and capacity for informatization construction increased rapidly from 2018 to 2028.When the range of willingness and capacity for informatization construction was set at 0~200,the willingness level increased from 25 to 90,and the ability level increased from 25 to 125.(2)The width of sensitivity map between the degree of policy support and the intensity of patient demand was about45%~77.5%,and the degree of hospital management and hospital scale expansion was about 50%~70%.The width of the sensitivity map of the variable of total income of the hospital is about 20%~320%.The intensity of human and financial construction related to the informatization construction and the informatization level of the hospital are about 20%~250%.The total investment in the informatization construction of the hospital is about 40%~160%.(3)The desire and ability of hospital informatization construction level set the range of 0~500,the hospital management oriented,external demand oriented,money oriented,talent orientation,five models comprehensive development-oriented respectively on the promotion of information construction will quantity is about 265,350,200,100 and 100,respectively on informatization construction ability level of about 245,260,385,120,120;(4)When the parameters related to informatization construction intention are +30%,the effect is obvious.When the parameters related to patient demand degree,hospital scale expansion degree and policy support degree are adjusted +30%,the intended increase is about 2000,2000,1700 and 850,respectively.When the parameters related to informatization construction capacity are +50%,the effect is obvious.Among them,the strength of informatization personnel and financial construction,the investment budget in the next two years,the accumulated investment,the total income of the hospital,and the capacity improvement when the relevant parameters of informatization level have been adjusted +50% are about 8500,6750,6750,5750 and 2250,respectively.Conclusion:(1)The next decade will be a period of rapid rise in the construction of hospital informatization in China.The government and hospitals should take strong measures to promote the construction of hospital informatization to a higher level.(2)To improve the willingness and ability of hospital informatization construction,it is necessary to start with the main sensitivity variables,and pay attention to the sensitivity variables such as the degree of government support and the input of human and financial resources related to informatization;(3)The willingness and ability level of hospital informatization construction depend on the development model,and the external demand-oriented and capital-oriented development model has a better effect on doctors;(4)The willingness and ability of hospital informatization construction should be treated differently for different levels of hospitals,taking measures according to local conditions and following the principle of moderation.