| Climate change and human interferences have induced alterations in streamflow,and further imposed negative impacts on the ecological environment,e.g.,streamflow attenuation,flow cease,poor hydrological connectivity,etc.Northeast China is an important commodity grain base,forestry base and old industrial base,with the rejuvenation of industrial bases and the implementation of national food security strategy,the demand for water resources will surely increase in the future which may cause the contradiction between water supply and demand.It is therefore necessary to have a better understanding on the causes of historical changes in streamflow,and meanwhile explore the evolution trend of water resources in the future.In this paper,the case study of Taoer River Basin is analyzed.The historical trend of hydro-meteorological variables and breakpoint of streamflow were identified,defining a natural period and an influenced period.SWAT hydrological model was then applied to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow alteration.On this basis,the future climate system models BCC-CSM2-MR and MRI-ESM2-0(CMIP6)are applied to carry out hydrological simulation in the research area.Then the evolution trend of precipitation and temperature under three different climate scenarios is explored.Estimated water resources available in future(2021~2080).Based on the forecast of water demand for future multi-water targets such as agriculture and cities and the results of supply and demand analysis,offer a proposal for water resources planning and utilization.This study can be a reference example revealing the causes of streamflow alterations in the historical period and predicting the evolution trends of water resources in the future.It can provide scientific support for water resources planning and management in the basin scale.The contents of the article and the results of the study are as follows.The variation trend of precipitation,temperature and runoff series of 4 meteorological stations and 2 hydrologic stations in Taoer River Basin in 1958~2017 was analyzed based on TFPW-MK test method,simple linear regression method and cumulative anomaly method.The mutation years of runoff sequence were identified by MK mutation test and double accumulation curve.Results indicated that in the last 60 years,the temperature of each meteorological station in the basin has a significant upward trend,the precipitation has a slight downward trend,and the runoff in the upstream and downstream catchment area has a significant downward trend.Select 1972 as the break point of runoff sequence.Natural period(1958-1972)and influence period(1973-2017)are divided according to the mutation points.Based on the SWAT model,it is concluded that climate change and human activities are the main causes of runoff change in the upper and lower reaches of Taoer River Basin,and then quantify their respective contributions.Under the future climate model BCC-CSM2-MR and MRI-ESM2-0(CMIP6),the trend of precipitation and temperature change in three different emission scenarios was analyzed.The SWAT hydrological model is used to investigate the runoff evolution law of the watershed in the future.Based on historical statistics and watershed development planning reports,the water quota method and the Tennant method are used to predict the future water demands in life,industry,agriculture and ecology.Based on the results of supply and demand analysis,suggestions on water resources utilization for sustainable development and ecological civilization construction from broaden sources of income and reduce expenditure. |
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