Analysis Of Factors Affecting Oil Consumption And Consumption Forecast

Oil is an important raw material for modern industrial society and an important strategic resource for the country.It is closely related to guaranteeing national economic development and national defense security.Due to the scarcity of oil resources and the uneven distribution of geographical locations,many countries in the world have encountered problems in the supply and demand of oil resources.China is a country where oil resources are in short supply.Therefore,this article starts with the study of the influencing factors of oil consumption,scientifically predicts China's recent oil consumption in the future,and proposes countermeasures for the future development of the oil industry to ensure the sustainable development of the national economy and national defense security.The main research question of this article is to analyze the current situation of China's oil resources in short supply.Based on the previous research of scholars,analyze and predict China's oil consumption.The paper first performs a factor analysis on the influencing factors of oil consumption,and then uses a single prediction model,that is,a multiple regression model,a gray Markov model,and an exponential smoothing model to fit known oil consumption data.According to the fitting accuracy of each single prediction model,the objective function with the smallest prediction error square and square root is solved to determine the weight coefficients of different single prediction models,and a combined prediction model with the highest fitting accuracy is constructed.This combination prediction model not only has high fitting accuracy,but also is relatively stable.Aiming at the basic overview of China's petroleum resources,such as proven reserves,production,and imports,the 12 independent variables affecting oil consumption were extracted using principal component analysis.The three common factors were named economic factor,social factor and energy consumption factor.Then,using the data on oil consumption from 1978 to 2018 as historical data,a combined forecasting model was established to predict China's oil consumption from2019 to 2021 as 661321325 tons,697260962 tons and 731965451 tons.At the end of this article,based on the analysis of the historical situation of the petroleum industry,combined with the current situation of China 's petroleum resources,further propose reasonable suggestions to improve the imbalance between supply and demand of China's petroleum resources.Such as increasing the development of petroleum resources,promoting the purchase of small-displacement vehicles and new energy vehicles,adjusting China's industrial structure and energy structure.