| With the rapid growth of population and the rapid development of economy,water resources,as one of the basic resources for human survival and development,is becoming more and more important.People are constantly increasing the development and utilization of water resources,resulting in a series of water security problems such as water shortage,intensified contradiction between supply and demand,water pollution,and degradation of ecology.How to alleviate the current water security problem and reduce the restriction on social sustainable development has become the focus and difficult problem of water resources management.The North China Plain is the core area of economic development in the north.Most of the rivers have been dry for a long time,the groundwater is over-exploited,and the shortage of water resources is becoming more and more serious.In the paper,Haixing County of Cangzhou City in Hebei Province was selected to evaluate the water resources security situation from 2014 to 2017,and the regional water resources was optimized.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)According to the present situation of water resources in China,the necessity of this research is expounded.Based on the collection of a large amount of data,the water resources condition and the current situation of water supply and utilization in Haixing County were analyzed.The main problems in the development and utilization of water resources in Haixing County are put forward.(2)From the four aspects of water supply security,economic security,social security and ecological security,11 evaluation indexes were selected to establish the judge system of water security.The network analytic hierarchy process(ANP)and gray relational analysis(GRA)were combined to establish an evaluation model of water security.The evaluation model was used to judge of the water security in Haixing County from 2014 to 2017.(3)According to the relevant policies and development plans of Haixing County,the combined water supply of local surface water,shallow groundwater,external diversion and reclaimed water will be realized in 2025.The water supply and demand under p=50% and p=75% in Haixing County in 2025 were forecasted,and the balance between supply and demand was further analyzed.It points out the degree of water shortage in each township under different guarantee rates in the planning level.Among them,Xiangfang Township has the most serious water shortage.(4)An optimal allocation model of regional water resources with multi-object,multisource,multi-partition and multi-user was constructed.In this model,the objective function aims at the maximum benefit of regional social and economy.The constraint situation was consist of water-carrying capacity,water supply capacity,variable nonnegative and two forbidden red lines of water use amount and water use efficiency.The Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm was used to calculate the optimization of water resources allocation.The optimal allocation of water resources shows that in 2025,under the p=50%,after increasing South-to-North Water Transfer and reclaimed water sources,Haixing County basically achieves a balance between supply and demand,and the interregional allocation of South-to-North Water Transfer plays a significant role in reducing the water shortage in Haixing County.Under the p=75%,the water shortage rate of Xiangfang Township has decreased compared with that before the deployment.(5)Then the countermeasures and suggestions for the rational development and utilization of water resources in Haixing County are put forward based on the adopted scheme in planning year and problems existing in the development and utilization of water resources at present.The above results could provide decision-making basis for sustainable development and utilization of regional water resources in Haixing County,provide a key technical support for water resources management,and provide reference for optimal allocation of water resources in other counties in the north. |
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