A Study On Threshold Effect Of R&D Input On Total Factor Productivity Of Development Zones

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "It is necessary to promote the quality,efficiency and the transformation of power,so as to promote the improvement of Total Factor Productivity." As the space of industrial agglomeration,under the “new normal” of economy,the extensive development mode of Development Zones that mainly relies on policy dividend and input of physical elements in the past has been unsustainable,so it is urgent to improve the level of Total Factor Productivity(TFP).Most of the researches have shown that agglomeration and R&D input both have important influence on TFP,but they have not considered these two factors in an unified analysis framework.As a necessary condition for technological innovation,R&D input is likely to affect the technology spillover effect in the process of agglomeration,which has an important impact on TFP in industrial agglomeration areas.But the low level R&D input has limited promotion on the technology spillover effect of agglomeration,and the high level R&D input may be unfavorable to the development of technology spillover effect of agglomeration due to "crowding effect".That is to say,the technology spillover effect of agglomeration needs to take a certain level of R&D input as the premise and guarantee,which means that the impact of R&D input on TFP in industrial agglomeration areas may have a threshold effect.Moreover,the relevant researches mainly focus on the administrative scale,such as national,provincial and urban scale,lacking attention to the scale of Development Zones.Therefore,on the basis of combing the relevant researches,this paper focuses on the analysis of the threshold effect of R&D input on TFP of Development Zones,and conducts an empirical research based on 61 Development Zones in Shanghai,in order to deepen the understanding of the mechanism of R&D input on TFP,so as to provide useful reference for the more efficient allocation of R&D resources,the promotion of TFP level in Development Zones and the realization of high-quality economic development.This paper includes seven chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,briefly describing the research background and significance,research contents,research methods,and possible innovations.The second chapter is the literature review,mainly sorting out the related researchresults,in order to clarify the main direction of this paper.The third chapter mainly discusses the mechanism of R&D input affecting TFP in the Development Zones from the theoretical level;The fourth chapter is the measurement of core indexes,mainly introducing the measurement methods of manufacturing agglomeration level,TFP and R&D input,and combining with the relevant data of Shanghai Development Zones,calculating the manufacturing agglomeration level,TFP and R&D input level of each Development Zones by using the location entropy method,DEA-Malmquist productivity index and entropy method respectively,and realizes the visual expression of the calculation results by using ArcGIS10.2 software.In addition,TFP is decomposed into technical progress representing new technology development and technical efficiency representing the utilization of existing technology,which lays the foundation for subsequent model analysis;The fifth chapter analyzes the impact of R&D input on the TFP of the Development Zones by using the common panel regression and threshold model to analyze the impact of R&D input and manufacturing agglomeration on TFP of the Development Zones.The sixth chapter is the path test of R&D input on TFP of Development Zones in Shanghai.The last chapter is the conclusion and discussion.The theoretical analysis shows that the technology spillover effect in the process of agglomeration needs a certain level of R&D input as a guarantee.And under different R&D input levels,there may be great differences in knowledge stock,technology spillover channels and enterprises' ability to learn by doing in the Development Zones,which may affect the exertion of technology spillover effect of agglomeration.That is to say,with different R&D input levels,the technology spillover effect of agglomeration is different,which shows that R&D input has a great influence on the technology spillover effect and may has a threshold effect on TFP of Development Zones.The empirical results show that:(1)R&D input has a significant positive impact on TFP in the Development Zones,specialized agglomeration has a "U" relationship with TFP,diversified agglomeration has a significant positive impact on TFP.With the R&D input as the threshold variable,specialized agglomeration has no threshold effect on TFP,while diversifiedagglomeration has a double threshold effect on TFP.Moreover,with the increase of R&D input,the positive impact is increasing.(2)R&D input affects the TFP of Development Zones by influencing technological progress and technological efficiency,while specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration affect the TFP of Development Zones by influencing technological progress.With the R&D input as the threshold variable,specialized agglomeration affects the TFP of Development Zones by influencing technological progress,while diversified agglomeration affects the TFP of Development Zones by influencing technological efficiency.