Study On Settlements Evolution And Spatial Optimization Of Land Use In The Quanfuzhuang By Means Of Markov And FLUS Models

The process of urbanization makes the rural population transfer to cities and towns rapidly,but the trend of rural settlement land is still rising.Only by clarifying the law and mechanism of settlement land change can we provide support for Rural Revitalization and sustainable development.Therefore,this paper selected Quanfuzhuang as the research object,which is located in the core area of the Hani Rice Terraces World Heritage site in Honghe County.Land use maps of the rural settlements of three eras(2013,2015,2019)is mapped by remote sensing image interpretation.Based on ArcGIS technique,by calculating settlement compactness index,nuclear density index,etc.,analyzed the evolvement rule,influencing factors and mechanism of the rural settlement.Additionally,the change trend of the rural settlement simulated and forecasted by using the Markov-FLUS model.Thereout we put forward the optimization measures of the settlement spatial pattern.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)S From the time and space changes of settlements,The rural settlement land of Quanfuzhuang changed significantly with remarkable spatial differences from 2005 to 2019.During 2005-2013,the overall land use showed that the number of residential buildings and land increased rapidly,and the paddy fields,roads and grasslands in villages were in a state of continuous reduction,which indicated that the increase of residential land mainly came from the transfer of open land,dry land and forest land.From 2013 to 2019,the number of residential buildings increased relatively slowly,and mainly came from the transfer of dry land and open land.The distribution pattern of residential buildings appeared a patchy distribution of agglomeration,and the degree of its agglomeration decreases with time.The distribution density of settlements as a whole shows a characteristic pattern of "dense in the middle and sparse around",and the high-value areas expanded around the settlement center;The change of residential houses reflected the increase in the shape length of residential houses,the distribution of residential houses with short shapes is less and less,and more complex.(2)From the perspective of influencing factors,the evolution of settlements is influenced by nature,society and policies..Based on the analysis of the factors that affect the evolution of residential buildings in different years,the most and stable factors affecting the residential distribution in each year were categorized as basic factors,including the altitude,slope and river.The factors that have a great influence on the distribution of residential houses are classified as new factors,including farmers' per capita income,location,rural population change and tertiary industry change.The factors that are uncertain in different years but have little impact on the change of residential buildings are classified as mutation factors,including targeted poverty alleviation and tourism development.The above three types of factors acted on the evolution of settlements from different aspects,and formed a "three-wheel" driving mechanism for the evolution of settlements in Quanfuzhuang village,which makes Quanfuzhuang village produced two evolution modes: natural evolution and accelerated evolution.(3)From the land use simulation results of settlements.Combined with Markov and FLUS model to simulate the change of land use of Quanfuzhuang village in 2019,the simulation results and the actual land use situation are validated by kappa test.The results of simulation accuracy arrived 90%.The probability map of land suitability established conforms to the characteristics of Quanfuzhuang village's land use,which shows this method have good simulation accuracy and practicability.According to the existing problems of land use in Quanfuzhuang,this paper puts forward the development scenario of land use space optimization in 2029.Based on the consideration of improving the life quality of residents,this paper proposed the optimization scheme of taking Quanfuzhuang Zhongzhai as the central village by optimizing the internal function of the settlement.