| At present,climate change is mainly characterized by climate warming and become a severe environmental problem faced by mankind,the methane in greenhouse gas has huge warming potential and play an important role in climate change.In particular,in the field of waste,the technology of emissions is mature and there is great potential for emission reductions.Therefore,it is necessary to study the methane emission reduction in the waste field.Because of the methane in the waste field is mainly released by waste disposal,this paper researched landfill methane emission trends and emission reduction measures in China based on the GIS-SD model.Firstly,we analyzed the factors affecting the amount of waste generated and the regionality of these factors to reveal the driving force of methane emissions;Secondly,based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)recommendation method,we estimated the methane emissions from different waste disposal methods to reveal the main emission source of methane emissions;Thirdly,it’s to get the simulation result of the development trend of methane emissions from the national landfills and the distribution of methane emissions in the province region,we built the GIS-SD model to reveal the relationship between parameters in the model,and the single methane emission reduction technology scenarios and the comprehensive methane emission reduction technology scenarios have been set up based on different emission reduction technologies;Finally,comparing the two aspects of methane emission reduction methods and the emission reduction measures are took to provide suggestions on landfill methane emission reduction.The result shows that:(1)GDP,population and built-up area are the main factors of the national MSW production,and the influence factors show regionalism only in the geographical division and the city scale division.From 2001 to 2015 year,the standard deviation ellipses of every quantity level of MSW shows a trend of equilibrium expansion,which shows that the amount of waste in each city increased gradually.And the standard deviation ellipse of the landfill,incineration site and composting site shows the trend of equilibrium expansion,micro expansion and tightening,indicating that the landfill was still the main waste disposal way,and the incineration site will be more popular,while the composting site is not well-development in the future.(2)On the national scale,it can be seen that the methane emissions from landfill and incineration treatment show a continuous increasing trend,and the landfill methane emission is still the main source of methane at present,but the methane emissions from composting treatment shows a decrease tend.On the geographical scale,it can be seen that the methane produced by landfill and incineration is the most in the east region and the least in the west region;but the composting site has the greatest amount of methane emission in the central region.On the provincial scale,it can be seen that the methane emission from landfill and incineration is increasing continuously in all provinces,and more provinces do not use the composting to deal with waste,but in recent years,there are also a few provinces in the way of composting disposal.(3)In terms of national methane emissions of landfills,methane emissions show a continuous growth trend when no emission reduction technology is applied,and there is no peak point in the methane emissions during the simulation time.Except the classified collection technical scenario,the recovery processing technical scenario and the waste collection and recovery scenario,the rest methane emission reduction scenarios all have peak point,and the peak values show up mainly between 2026 and 2029.In addition,the effect of co-operation emission reduction by multi-technology is better.In terms of provincial methane emissions of landfill disposal,the methane emissions in all provinces is reduced after the application of emission reduction technologies,the central oxidation technology is better in the single emission reduction technology,and the strengthening emission reduction in the first and middle stages technology and full stages forced emission reduction technology is better in the comprehensive emission reduction technology.(4)Through the comprehensive analysis of emission reduction potential and the emission reduction cost of each technology,we believe that the technology of strengthen emission reduction at both ends is the optimal emission reduction path for national methane emission reduction.According to the analysis of the emission reduction way,it is believed that the single emission reduction technology has both sides.Only by using comprehensive emission reduction technology can reduce the landfill methane emission completely. |
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