Study On The Influence Of Carbon Futures Market On Spot Price Volatility

At the end of 2017,the National Development and Reform Commission promulgated the "National carbon emissions Trading Market Construction Program(power generation industry)",which marking the establish a unified national carbon emissions trading market.It is a big problem that introduce carbon futures disrupt the spot carbon market in the past five years in the construction of the seven plus two pilot carbon markets.Even how to carry out carbon futures and other financial derivatives trading have been puzzling the carbon market mechanism designers and participate in carbon trading control enterprises financial institutions.In the face of the lack of liquidity in the spot carbon market and the current situation of the continuing downturn in trading introducing carbon futures market has become the focus of attention of the vast number of carbon market participants.In this paper,the author refreshes memory the development of the global carbon market policy background,And the author focus on and analysis the development of China’s carbon market track and the future trend.On this basis,he starts analysis with the development of the most important carbon trading market in the world,the European carbon trading market.The paper first analyzes the characteristics of the construction,trading mechanism and market developments of the spot market in the European carbon trading period.System design and other aspects combined with the relevant research results,which from many scholars at home and abroad were summarized and analyzed.On this basis,the paper summarizes the experience of developing future trading,spot trading simultaneously in the European spot trading market of carbon futures,the lessons and safeguards in the operation of the market.Secondly,we can contact the development of China’s carbon market.we can analyze and study from the present situation and development of the carbon trading market in China.The following aspects: the amount,volume,mode and activity of the carbon spot trading market in seven pilot regions of China’s carbon trading market,the current situation,the development of the carbon trading market in China.This paper summarizes the characteristics and the main problems of the current development of China’s carbon trading market,such as opaque trading information,price imbalance,market liquidity shortage and so on.On the basis of the research on the current situation of carbon trading in Europe and China.This paper attempts to take the price effect of European carbon futures market on the spot market as the main line of studying.The characteristic factors of European carbon market that is price and volatility.These are the trend of carbon futures and carbon spot in the process of information transmission.Collecting the actual trading data such as,(ICE)carbon futures contract of Europe’s main spot carbon exchange and European energy exchange(EEX)carbon spot closing price.Taking those data as the samples of empirical research.Through using time series analysis to analyze ADF unit root test,Granger test,etc.And qualitative determination of the EUA carbon spot price between the guiding relationships and the introductions of EUA carbon futures on the carbon spot market volatility.Finally,through establishing error correction model,the empirical results quantitative analysis of the impact of EUA carbon futures market on the carbon spot market,and then the realization of carbon futures market price discovery effect.That is,the construction efficiency of European carbon futures market.On this basis,aiming at the deficiency of the development of carbon spot market in China’s 7+2 pilot regions.It is concluded that the construction of carbon futures market in China will help enhance the liquidity of the market and improve the price discovery mechanism of the carbon market.Conclusions on promoting diversification of carbon finance products.Through the construction of carbon futures market to strengthen the carbon spot market functions and other aspects.The aim is to provide useful references.