Evaluation Of Coal Production Capacity And Analysis Of Formation Mechanism Of Overcapacity

Since the founding of new China,especially since the reform and opening up,coal energy has played an important role in the process of promoting the modernization of the country.It is an important strategic resource to ensure the sustained and steady development of the national economy.However,in 2013,there was a serious overcapacity in the coal industry in China,the market was oversupplied,and the price of coal fell sharply.By 2015,more than 90% of the coal enterprises had lost their benefits,and the coal industry had encountered the most serious crisis of overcapacity of our country in the history.As a basic energy industry in China,the overcapacity of coal is closely related to the development of electric power,steel and building materials.The harm caused by overcapacity has spread to many fields of national economic development,and also brought unstable factors to the construction of a harmonious society.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the research of coal productivity.Considering that the formation of overcapacity needs a period of time,this paper evaluates and analyzes the utilization of coal productivity from 2000 to 2016 in China,intends to explore the formation mechanism of overcapacity and find the effective way to solve the problem of overcapacity.At the end,this paper tries to establish an early warning mechanism for coal overcapacity.The main contents of this paper include four parts.First,through the analysis of three aspects of the important strategic position of coal resources,the current situation of resources development and utilization,the market and the development status of coal enterprises,the paper has gotten some conclusions,that is,the reserves of high quality coal resources are few,the geographical distribution is uneven,cross regional logistics transportation is large,the mechanized production capacity and intelligence level of coal industry have reached the advanced international level,the problems of overcapacity are serious,and the industry loses a lot.It is urgent to solve the problems of overcapacity.Second,this paper uses the Data Envelopment Analysis(Data Envelope Analysis,hereinafter referred to as DEA)to calculate coal productivity of China from 2000 to 2016.The model of constant returns to scale(CCR)is firstly used to determine whether the technical and scale efficiency of coal production in China could reach the optimal state at the same time.Then,the model of variable returns to scale(BCC)is used to determine that China's coal overcapacity was caused by the technical inefficiency or the diseconomy of scale.The results indicate that the overcapacity of China from 2000 to 2016 appeared intermittently,there was a slight overcapacity in 2000 and 2009,the situation from 2013 to 2015 was more serious,and some improved in 2016.The overcapacity of coal is mainly caused by the diseconomy of scale.Third,based on the "Driving force-Pressure-State-Response" model(Driving force-Pressure-State-Response,hereinafter referred to as DPSR),this paper analyzes the causes of coal overcapacity from the two angles of the supply side and the barrier to exit of overcapacity of coal,and then uses econometric tools to make an case study on the mechanism of the overcapacity of coal.A consistent conclusion is that overcapacity is caused by corporate behavior,local government behavior and market factors.Fourth,according to the results of the evaluation and the analysis,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to solve the overcapacity of coal in China.In the proposal,a set of early warning index system to prevent the overcapacity of coal in China is set up according to the DPSR model,and on this basis,an early warning mechanism to prevent the overcapacity of coal in China is established,which can offer references to further researches on coal production capacity and prevention of overcapacity.