The Influence Of Short-term Fluctuation Of Crude Oil Prices On Stock Prices Of Chinese Oil Companies

Due to the acceleration of industrialization,China’s demand for oil,which is an important industrial raw material,has also increased year by year.As early as the 1990 s,the supply of domestic oil could no longer meet the needs of economic development,and China has thus become a net importer of oil.At present,China’s dependence on oil imports has reached a staggering 72.3% in 2017 and an increase of 10% in two years.Therefore,China’s economic development will be more affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices,and because crude oil is directly related to oil companies,the favorable or unfavorable impact of oil price fluctuations is also a must for oil companies.In addition,unexpected events are also one of the causes of fluctuations in crude oil prices.At the same time,oil companies will be affected by fluctuations in oil prices.Therefore,this paper mainly studies how the fluctuations in crude oil prices caused by unexpected events that affect the stock prices of Chinese oil companies.In order to analyze the impact of short-term fluctuations in oil prices on the stock price of Chinese oil companies,this paper first studies the factors affecting crude oil prices,which are elaborated from two aspects: the affecting factors under normal conditions and the affecting factors in unexpected events.The study found that crude oil supply and demand factors,speculative factors and the dollar exchange rate factors mainly affect the medium and long-term fluctuations of crude oil prices;and the short-term fluctuations of international crude oil prices are mainly affected by unexpected events,such as wars and natural disasters.Secondly,this paper analyzes how China’s stock market is affected by oil price fluctuations,mainly from the macro and micro aspects.The results show that oil price fluctuations can indeed affect the stock market through certain factors in the macro and micro fields,and cause the stock market volatility.At the same time,fluctuations in crude oil prices will have an impact on the development and operational capacity of oil companies.This provides theoretical support for the impact of short-term fluctuations in oil prices on the stock prices of oil companies.In the empirical research part of this paper,the three typical events of Hurricane Katrina against the Gulf of Mexico,Saudi Arabia’s air strikes against the Yemeni Hussein rebels and the Doha oil-producing countries’ conferences were selected,using the event study method.The research was carried out by means of stability test,unit root test,co-integration test and T test.The empirical results show that China’s oil companies are obviously affected by the fluctuations of international crude oil prices caused by the above three events,and the cumulative average abnormal rate of return of oil companies is significant.Second,the rapid increase in international oil prices in the short term will not benefit China’s oil companies.On the contrary,the rapid rise of international oil prices in the short term will damage China’s oil companies by increasing the cost burden of oil companies.Through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research,it is concluded that the short-term fluctuation of oil prices will have a certain impact on the stock price of Chinese oil companies.At the same time,this paper will also propose the countermeasures of Chinese oil companies in the context of violent fluctuations in international oil prices.Therefore,the research in this paper can raise the concern of oil companies on oil price fluctuations,and also remind oil companies to take measures to deal with oil fluctuations as soon as possible.