Risk Assessment And Risk Classification Of RoRo Passenger Ship Based On Bayesian Network

The traditional ship accident risk assessment is mainly to assess the accident risk before the ship sails or to carry out a risk assessment for a particular sea condition.This risk assessment assumes that the navigation conditions remain stationary after the sailing,that is,the state of each risk factor is unchanged.But in fact,since the ship in the process of navigation,the risk factors are dynamic and variable.Therefore,the traditional model of ship accident risk assessment can not make the risk assessment result change with the change of navigation condition.As a result,it is difficult to apply in a complex and changeable navigation environment.So,it is of great significance to study and construct a reasonable risk assessment model to analyze the impact of dynamic risk factors on navigation safety during the process of ship navigation.In this paper,by collecting a large number of historical accident data of Bohai Bay passenger ship,and combined with the system security method,a Bayesian network node with risk factor was constructed.Then,according to the relevant expert knowledge,the Bayesian network structure is constructed,which makes the Bayesian network have enough logical nodes to determine the general process of the sailing accident.After obtaining the complete Bayesian network,the Bayesian network is studied by using the historical accident data in the GeNIe software to obtain the conditional probability table(CPT),at the same time,the Bayesian Network's conditional probability table(CPT)is optimized by synthesizing the opinions of a number of domain experts.At last,the Bayesian network structure diagram and conditional probability table can be used to inference the Bayesian network,so that the risk of the ro-ro passenger ship can be evaluated under different navigation conditions.To a certain extent,the model established in this paper can be used to evaluate the dynamic risk of ro-ro passenger ship during navigation,and enriches the methodology and theory of ship sailing risk assessment.In addition,the model obtained in this paper can be used as a dynamic risk assessment.In addition,this paper uses the Bayesian model to calculate the probability of accident caused by the risk factor,and then use the risk matrix grading method to risk the risk factors in the flight risk classification,identified seven extremely dangerous risk factors,and gives the corresponding risk factors should take action.The research results have important theoretical guidance value and realistic reference significance for ensuring the safety of ro-ro passenger ship navigation and preventing accidents.