Research On Uncertainty Information Processing And Risk Assessment Of Tailings Dam Based On Type Ⅱ Prediction Set

The tailings dam is the largest source of high potential energy hazard in the mine.Once a dam failure occurs,it will cause huge casualties,property losses and ecological environment damage.The tailings dam risk assessment technology is a necessary means to avoid the occurrence of dam failure.However,the internal attribute parameters and external monitoring index information of the dam are often have incompleteness,random,fuzzy and other uncertainties,which make the risk level judgment complex and versatile.Moreover,the data reliability is also an important characteristic leading to the uncertainty of the evaluation results.Without considering the data reliability,the evaluation results will be poor.Therefore,how to describe the internal uncertainty of the dam’s internal attribute parameters and external monitoring indicators is the key to improve the accuracy of dam body risk assessment.Therefore,this paper takes the tailings dam as the research object,and uses the theory of fuzzy reasoning technology and possibility theory as the means.The main research contents are as follows:(1)In-depth analysis were conducted for uncertain factors of the dam internal property parameters and dam external sensor index information and analyzed the classification of information uncertainty during the risk assessment of the tailings dam;The uncertainty and uncertainty description methods of information in tailings dam risk assessment were discussed;The rheological-mutation theory was used to analyze the dynamic development process of the stability status of the tailings dam,and the classification of the safety level of the dam was studied.;(2)The description methods of information uncertainty were explored.Based on the probability distribution,the information reliability distribution was introduced to define the type II prediction set and related concepts.On the basis of the type I distribution,a type II distribution reflecting the reliability of the data was constructed.The reliability distribution and the probability distribution were used to describe the data reliability and uncertainty respectively,and a description method for the type II prediction set information was proposed.(3)A risk assessment model for the tailings dam with type II prediction set was established.The safety level scale of the internal attribute parameters and external monitoring indicators of the dam were constructed,and the safety level determination rule was constructed.The relationship between the evaluation data and the safety level scale was studied by using the centroid matrix of the type II prediction sets and the similarity matrix,and the evaluation result of the safety level was determined by judging the position of the centroid point in the projection surface.Finally,the risk assessment results in account of the reliability distribution were compared with those regardless of reliability distribution to verify its validity and effectiveness.