The Research On Risk Management Of Pressure Pipeline Based On Hierarchical Fuzzy Theory

During the design,construction,operation and maintenance of pipeline,there are many uncertain factors that induce pressure pipeline failure.The mediums pressure pipelines are mostly flammable,explosive and toxic.Thus the failures of pressure pipeline will result in major political,economic,and social instabilities.Of course,the operation safety of pressure pipelines is vital for Chinese oil&gas supply and energy security.It is necessary to study and evaluate the risk of pressure pipeline failure.This paper presents a detailed study on the risk of pressure pipeline in Project A based on risk management theory.It is hoped that the research results will have certain positive significance for the production practice of the project.The work can be summarized as follows:(1)This paper analyzes the internal environment of pressure pipeline risk management of project A from four aspects:system,capital,human resources and corporate culture.On this basis,accurately identify and determine the risk factors of the pressure pipeline,and construct an index system for risk of the pressure pipeline,using the two risk identification methods,such as RBS method and Delphi method.(2)This paper evaluates the risk factors of each risk point from three aspects:the probability of risk factor,the loss size and the risk rating.(3)Determine the weight of the pressure pipeline risk index by hierarchy analysis model,and then establishes a judgment matrix by pairwise comparison,according to the given risk factor importance scale value and judgment criteria,after accurately identifying and determining the first and second level indicators of pressure pipeline risk.Finally,obtain the weight value of each level of risk indicators through calculation.(4)The overall risk score of the project A is obtained by using a fuzzy evaluation,with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The comprehensive evaluation of the multi-level pressure pipeline factors of the project A is completed referring the evaluation grade.(5)Provide the risk countermeasures and the risk management guarantee system of the pressure pipeline in project A,based on the risk identification and evaluation.In order to reduce and avoid losses caused by the pressure pipeline risk,and ensure the empirical project to be carried out smoothly and safely.