Study On Factor Affecting Industrial CO₂ Emissions And Reduction Scenarios In Shanxi

Under the background of responding to climate change actively and promoting industrial green and low-carbon development,China has gradually accelerated the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions such as CO2,and allocated emission reduction targets to provincial-level regions,and emphasized the necessity of industrial emission reduction.Therefore,industrial emission reduction efforts and effectiveness of various provinces are critical to the achievement of national emission reduction targets.Shanxi is a resource-based province with heavy industry as the leading industry,which has the largest annual CO2 emissions in our country.So exploring and identifying the main factors affecting industrial CO2 emissions from multi-angle,and simulating industrial emission reduction effects,then designing targeted emission reduction policy are the key to achieving green and low-carbon development in Shanxi,and are also of great significance for the successful completion of national emission reduction targets.This study uses input-output table data from 1987 to 2017 to decompose the factors affecting industrial CO2 emissions and intensity for 30 years based on the accounting and characteristic analysis of industrial CO2 emissions by constructing an IO-SDA model containing inter-provincial trade factors in Shanxi.And the direct and indirect effects of Industrial CO2 emission growth in Shanxi were discussed in different time periods.What’s more,this paper updates the input and output tables of Shanxi in 2020 using RAS method,and analyzes the trends and emission reduction effects of industrial CO2 emissions in 2020 under different scenarios by setting up baseline scenarios,policy scenarios and enhanced policy scenarios for key factors such as emission intensity and industrial structure.This study finds that the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption,investment,and interprovincial outflow is the main promoting factor of CO2 emissions,and the interprovincial outflow expansion effect is the most.The direct energy intensity effect is the key reducing factor.Among the seven major industries in Shanxi,CO2 emissions from agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery and light industry have declined,and other industries including heavy industry and construction industry have driven the continuous growth of CO2 emissions.In the different periods,there are obvious differences in the factors promoting and reducing CO2 emissions and the impact in various industries.The total CO2 emissions intensity of various industries is overall higher,and the heavy industry is the highest.The energy structure effect and the direct energy intensity effect are the key reducing factors,and the direct energy intensity effect has the largest contribution value.In the industrial CO2 emission reduction scenario simulation,the growth of CO2 emissions is still very high under the baseline scenario and policy scenario.Only under the enhanced policy scenario,the growth rate is greatly reduced and the growth trend is slowing down,the industrial CO2 emission is expected to peak around 2030.Accordingly,this study puts forward some policy suggestions such as cultivating new and advantageous trade products,optimizing industrial interprovincial transferred product structure,balancing consumption,investment and trade transfer structures,creating new models for energy saving and emission reduction,and developing differentiated industrial emission reduction incentives.