The Risk Of Ship Collision Along The "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road"

With the development of the “21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative”(MSR),trade between the associated countries has been increasing.The risk of ship accidents has increased correspondingly with high traffic volume.3790 maritime accidents occurred along the MSR from 2011 to 2015.Among them,1026 collision accidents occurred,and left 250 people dead or missing,the economic loss about 400 billion yuan.Obviously,collision is the most important accident type.The transportation security of the MSR is directly related to the security of China's trade channel,energy channel and strategic channel.To ensure its sustainability,shipping safety issues need to be addressed in urgency.The study on the collision accidents risk is an effective way to prevent collision.Based on the theory of safety systems engineering,the paper first analyzes the ship collision influence factors from personnel,ships,environment and management four aspects.Then established the Bayesian network model of ship collision risk along the MSR and implementation on the simulation with the GeNle2.0 software.In model building,first is to identify 22 Bayesian network nodes.According to the statistical data of ship accidents along the MSR from 2011 to 2015,combining theoretical analysis and expert knowledge.Second is to determine the Bayesian network structure.The Bayesian network structure was established based on the expert knowledge,and corrected with correlation analysis results.Finally,the Bayesian network model is established after calculating the conditional probability table of each network node by Bayesian estimation method.In simulation implementation,first is to test that the model can be used to predict the probability of ship collision risk along the MSR.Second,the paper finds out that the fatigue,staffing and fresh water type is the main influence factors of collision accident risk,using reverse reasoning for diagnostic reasoning of Bayesian network model.Finally,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the risk of collision according to the research conclusion.The results provide some theoretical support for reducing the risk of ship collision and improving the traffic safety of ships,which is a beneficial supplement to the whole domain of ship traffic safety.Meanwhile,the results can be used to predict the probability of ship collision risk along the MSR.The paper has a certain practical significance of guaranteeing the transportation security of the MSR and the construction of the "One Belt and One Road".