Research On The Valuation Of Franchise Right Of PPP Project In Sewage Treatment

With the construction of an environment-friendly society in China,the level of people’s living has been continuously improved,not only in the improvement of the material living standards such as food,clothing,housing and transportation,but also in the pursuit of spiritual aspects such as the improvement of the living environment.However,China is currently facing serious water pollution: sewage discharges have increased dramatically,and water bodies have been polluted,leading to eutrophication.Water is a basic resource in people’s lives.Water pollution brings great harm to daily drinking water and seriously affects people’s health.In view of the recyclability of water resources,the purification of sewage is extremely important.As economic development enters a new normal and the urbanization process accelerates,the gap in the public service sector becomes more and more large,especially in sewage treatment projects,which rely entirely on the government to meet the needs of society.To solve the problem of inefficient urban sewage treatment,the way of the government cooperates with social capital(PPP,Public-Private Partnership)has gradually highlighted its rationality and feasibility.The government-social capital cooperation model can not only reduce the economic burden of the government and local financing platforms,but also reduce the government’s intervention in micro-transactions more effectively,and put more energy into macro-processing such as planning and supervision to achieve functional transformation.As a new model,the PPP model involves many issues such as the transfer of state-owned assets,which has aroused the attention of the society.In particular,the issue of the valuation of the franchise rights with a fixed term under this model has attracted much attention.This article is roughly divided into three parts.Firstly,the research status of the franchise value evaluation of sewage treatment PPP project was collated and analyzed at home and abroad.It was found that the evaluation of the value of franchise rights currently uses the method of discounting future cash flow.Secondly,it expounds the theory of franchise value evaluation of PPP mode project,and analyzes and compares the final choice income method to evaluate the franchise value of sewage treatment PPP project that has been put into operation.When applying the income method for value assessment,the key point of future cash flow forecasting is to correctly predict the future sewage treatment volume,and establish a GM(1,1)model based on gray prediction theory to make scientificand reasonable future sewage treatment volume.Quantitative prediction.Finally,the SH sewage treatment PPP project was selected for case analysis,and the value of the franchise rights during the remaining franchise period was obtained.When assessing the value of the franchise rights during the remaining franchise period,the traditional income method is too subjective to determine the future income,which makes the evaluation results have a large deviation from their true value.The future income amount has the characteristics of small sample size and incomplete information,and the gray prediction method is applicable to this kind of situation.In this paper,the gray forecast GM(1,1)model is used to improve the traditional income method,and the future income is scientifically and reasonably predicted,and provides a new idea for the application of the income method in asset evaluation.