The Evolution Characteristics Of Global Petroleum Trade Network And It's Influencing Factors Under Low Oil Price Era

The global petroleum trade is complicated and changeable,and its economic activities are affected by many factors.At the end of 2014,petroleum prices have turned down sharply.As an important strategic resource for all countries,the drastic changes of petroleum prices will cause the world economic and political tensions and change the global trade structure.As a major petroleum importer,China's external interdependency has been constantly increasing,reaching 65.2% in 2016,which will lead to many energy security issues.Therefore,it is important to deeply understand the changing characteristics of the global petroleum trade structure and its influencing factors in the era of low petroleum prices,and to analyze China's status and current status in the global petroleum trade,which is of great significance to safeguard China's petroleum security and stability.As the basis of the full text,the introduction of this paper mainly expounds the background of the global oil trade oil price reduction and the development of the complex network and trade gravity model.The first chapter is about the construction of complex networks and the selection of main indicators and variables,including centrality,influence,core-edge structure,stability changes and the construction of trade gravity model.The second chapter focuses on the analysis of the evolution of global oil trade in the low oil price era,and analyzes the differences in the evolution of global oil trade before and after the oil price decline.The third chapter uses the trade gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of global oil trade at low oil prices,and compares it with the factors affecting global oil trade at high oil prices.The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the role of China in the global oil trade in the era of low oil prices and the security of imports.Through the analysis of China's trade volume,foreign-trade dependence and safety index,it provides strategic analysis for the safety and stability of China's oil trade.Finally,the conclusions of this paper are proposed,including the relevant conclusions of the characteristics and influencing factors of global oil trade in the era of low oil prices,and related strategies for safeguarding China's oil security.After a series of research and analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions.(1)The global oil trade shows a more pronounced heterogeneity at low oil prices;The position of the Netherlands in the global oil trade has increased significantly after the reduction of oil prices;The core countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region have gradually decreased after the reduction of oil prices,and the focus of trade has shifted to the Americas and Asia.(2)At high oil prices,the impact of the Human Development Index(HDI)on oil trade is more pronounced,Oil trade is positively related to the degree ofnational development;The Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)have a greater impact on oil trade;The oil reserves of exporting countries play a greater role in promoting oil trade than they do at low oil prices.At low oil prices,trade agreements between countries can help countries to conduct oil trade,which can better reflect the role of trade agreements.Oil reserves of importing countries have a greater hindrance to oil trade than they do at high oil prices.(3)With China's increasing dependence on foreign countries,the form of oil supply security is not optimistic.In order to cope with the issue of oil supply security,China should upgrade its strategic oil reserve capacity,explore oil import channels,open up oil import channels and realize diversification of oil import.