Research On Influencing Factor Analysis And Demand Forecast Of China's Natural Gas Consumer Market

Natural gas is efficient green energy which is beneficial to the environment.With a series of national macro-energy policy factors stimulating the development of China's natural gas market,China's natural gas market demand has maintained a relatively high growth trend.China has become the world's largest natural gas importer and third largest natural gas consumer.Due to the many factors that affect China's natural gas market demand,and its system is complex and huge,the article studies the relationship between the natural gas market influencing factors on the natural gas market demand,builds a demand forecast model,grasps the inherent mechanism of the Chinese natural gas market,and effectively conducts theoretical research on natural gas demand Scientific predictions have important theoretical and practical significance for the future development of China's natural gas market.Based on the connotation and characteristics of China's natural gas market,combined with the complexity and diversity of influencing factors of China's natural gas demand system and relevant socio-economic laws,this study summarizes the existing domestic and foreign research literature on natural gas demand prediction.This study systematically analyzes the influencing factors of China's natural gas market demand,and explores 12 indicators of four categories,including national energy policy factors,economic development factors,social population factors,and natural 'gas industry development factors.The correlation analysis,principal component analysis and path analysis of the selected indicators related to the domestic natural gas market factors are carried out to analyze the internal mechanism of the natural gas market.In addition,grey correlation,time series and curve fitting and genetic algorithm are used to optimize the BP neural network hybrid prediction model.After verifying the scientificity and rationality of the model,the demand forecast of China's natural gas market is carried out.Finally,the results of mixed forecasting,scenario setting forecasting and related government planning data are compared with the results of other researchers to further verify the scientificity of indicator selection and the rationality of the prediction results.This article takes the Chinese natural gas market as a research object,studies the impact of national energy policies and natural gas market development and other influencing factors on China's natural gas demand,analyzes the inherent logic of the natural gas market,and builds a genetic algorithm to optimize the hybrid forecasting of BP neural network and multiple forecasting models The model studies market demand from the perspective of national social and economic development,and combines policy analysis and forecasting results to provide policy recommendations.and natural gas market development recommendations for the government and relevant industry managers,providing new theories for future research on China's natural gas demand forecasting Perspective and reference data.