Evaluation Of Resources And Environment Carrying Capacity And System Dynamics Simulation In Fuzhou City

With the rapid development of Fuzhou City,the population explosive growth,traffic congestion and urban environment deterioration have been brought.It is urgent to study the overall bearing capacity of urban resources and environment.The bearing capacity of resources and environment is an important index to describe the relationship between social and economic development and environmental resources.Therefore,it is necessary to define the factors that have an important impact on the carrying capacity of resources and environment,and then adjust and control the relevant factors according to the situation of resources and environment in Fuzhou City,and simulate the effective methods of resources and environment protection and social and economic development.Referring to the concept of resource and environment carrying capacity,the paper selects indexes from three systems of economy,resources and environment to construct the evaluation index system of regional resource and environment in Fuzhou City,weights relevant indexes with entropy method,evaluates the development of regional resource and environment in Fuzhou City with TOPSIS method,and then draws the causality diagram of resource and environment in Fuzhou City.Finally,the system dynamics model of Fuzhou’s resources and environment is constructed by using the causality diagram,and the relevant data of Fuzhou’s economy,population,resources and environment from2007 to 2017 are used for debugging and testing.The model has passed the robustness test,historical test and sensitivity analysis,and can well simulate the development trend of Fuzhou’s resources and environment carrying capacity.According to the characteristics of Fuzhou City,twelve parameters are selected and four scenarios are set according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to simulate the future development trend of resource and environment carrying capacity of Fuzhou City.The results show that the global coordination scenario:Fuzhou has a small population,but a high level of regional economic development;it fully demonstrates the advantages of water resources development in the region,and the overall demand for resources is less;the grain planting area remains stable and improved;by 2020,its basic total consumption should be controlled within the scope of China’s regulations;the pollutant COD emissions are also relatively high Small;in 2020,SO₂ emissions are up to standard,which can ensure that the region can better protect the ecological environment while developing economy,and achieve the basic goal of environmental friendly and coordinated development as far as possible.But it will bring environmental problems in the later stage of development.Power order scenario:with a large population,the overall economic development level is low.While developing the economy,it seriously pollutes the surrounding ecological environment and discharges a large number of pollutants,which belongs to a poor development model.In this development mode,we pay close attention to the economic development in a small area,which directly affects the level of economic development in this region,and we have not taken reasonable measures to protect the existing ecosystem,so we have more and more serious environmental problems at the same time of economic development in this region.Adapt to the combination scenario:the population is large,but the overall economic development level is obviously low,unable to make better use of all kinds of natural resources,which seriously pollutes the ecological environment while developing the economy.Under this development mode,the local ecological environment may be greatly affected.According to this development model,it is expected that by 2020,the total basic energy consumption will be significantly higher than the control volume of the 13th five years plan.Scenario of technological home:the population is small,the economy keeps rapid development,various natural resources can be better utilized,and the demand for water resources is less.While developing economy,it will not have a great impact on the surrounding ecological environment.It is a better development mode.Under this development mode,we can maintain the rapid economic development,and also can better deal with various ecosystem problems.In consideration of the development of modern economy,the development mode of global synergy and technology home is preferred.In order to maintain the continuous increase of economic development level,we can also choose the global coordinated development mode under necessary conditions.In the later stage of development,we can gradually change and upgrade to the development mode of technology home,and realize the overall goal of coordinated development of population,economy,environment and resources as soon as possible.