Analysis Of Population Temporal And Spatial Dynamic Exposure Of PM_2.5 In Beijing Urban Area Based On Multi-source Data

Over the past decades,PM_2.5.5 has become one of the major pollutants in haze outbreaks with the acceleration of urbanization.The Global Burden of Disease Study（GBD）estimates that environmental pollution-related diseases caused 9 million premature deaths in 2015,of which the estimated number of deaths caused by PM_2.5.5 rose from 3.5 million in 1990 to 4.2 million in 2015.An increase of 20%.In early 2013,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,represented by Beijing,had an average PM_2.5concentration of up to 500 ug/m³,which posed a serious threat to public health in Beijing and greatly increased the risk of disease among residents.Therefore,the risk of overexposure to air pollution should not be underestimated for Beijing’s public health,which may greatly increase the risk of disease among residents and endanger human physical and mental health.Therefore,it is necessary to study the health effects of PM_2.5pollution on human’s exposure intensity in Beijing urban area.In view of this,the research based on the data of population census,land uses,POI point and PM_2.5concentration in Beijing urban area,a high-precision PM_2.5.5 simulation prediction model and a high-resolution population spatialization method were constructed successively,and then the high-precision spatial distribution characteristics of PM_2.5.5 population exposure intensity were obtained,and based on the population partition model.The difference of PM_2.5.5 exposure response among different populations was studied.The following conclusions can be drawn from the study:（1）For the simulation of PM_2.5.5 in Beijing urban area,the fitting error of spatio-temporal kriging（BM model）is lower than that of ordinary Kriging,and the fitting prediction accuracy is higher.The PM_2.5.5 concentration in Beijing urban area has better continuity and spatial heterogeneity in time and space,showing a whole situation of low in the north and high in the south,and PM_2.5.5 has significant spatial auto-correlation,As time goes on,the spatial aggregation characteristics of PM_2.5.5 show a significant migration and transformation pattern.（2）The 1 km grid population estimation model based on regional scale of Beijing urban area has the higher accuracy.It shows a"concentric circle"feature that gradually decreases from the center of the city to the surrounding suburban areas,and the spatial distribution of the population has a significant spatial auto-correlation,which is a significantly positive correlation,mainly with high-high clustering,and concentrated in the main urban area within the four rings of Beijing.（3）In May 2014,the population exposure intensity of PM_2.5.5 in Beijing urban area has significant spatial and temporal variability.As time goes on,the population exposure intensity of PM_2.5.5 shows a periodic change pattern.Spatially,the population exposure intensity of PM_2.5.5 shows an overall trend of decreasing from the city center to the surrounding area,and the city center is a high exposure concentration.（4）The spatial distribution characteristics of the male and female population in the 1km grid of Beijing urban area are basically consistent,showing a concentric circle structure radiating from the city center to the surrounding area.There are significant differences in the spatial distribution of the population in different age groups,but basically maintained a overall trend of decrease from city center to surrounding suburbs.There was no significant difference in PM_2.5.5 exposure response among different population groups,but there were a little spatial differences...