The Impact Of Transport Policies On Energy,Air Pollution And Public Health In Beijing,China

In recent years,with the rapid economic development and the continuously enlarged urban size,the traffic demand in Beijing increases,however,large motor vehicles population leads to serious traffic congestion and air pollution.Vehicle emission is a major cause for deteriorating air quality in Beijing,air pollution brings inconvenience to outings and endangers public health as well.Recently,multiple traffic management policies have been published,aiming to ease congestion and improve air quality.Accordingly,studying the impact of the traffic policies on traffic energy consumption、pollutant emissions and public health,is of great significance for the policy formulation and implementation.The thesis chooses the traffic energy consumption 、 pollutant emissions and public health as study object and makes a deep research for their future development in different policy scenarios on the basis of reading and analyzing a lot of relevant literatures.The thesis uses the LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System)model in energy forecast analysis and concentration influencing function in epidemiological studies.This thesis designs five scenarios within the framework of comprehensive transport planning and policy in Beijing,including baseline scenario、number controlling scenario、new energy promoting scenario 、 high tech scenario and integrated scenario.Then we establishe LEAP model to forecast the traffic energy consumption and pollutant emissions.The thesis analyzes the impact of different traffic policies on the traffic energy and pollutant emissions.According to the concentration influencing function,we establishe health-loss model to forecast public health loss under above five scenarios.The thesis analyzes the impact of different traffic policies on the public health.Furthermore,the thesis makes references and suggestions on the traffic policy-making and points out the existing inadequacies and future research direction.