Analysis On Evolvement Trend Of Coal Industrial Chain In China Based On Input-output Model

Coal is an important part of China's energy system which provides important energy support for China's social and economic development,coal has been the largest consumption energy in our country for a long time,the development of our economy,society,politics and ecology is closely related to coal industry.China is rich in coal and short in oil and gas,which determines that coal will be the primary energy for a long time in the first energy consumption.In recent years,with the development of China's economic being slowdown,the coal industry overcapacity problem and environmental problems have a huge impact on the development of the coal industry,the coal industry is currently facing a huge transition problem.In order to develop a more complete analysis of the coal industry,this paper applied input-output model,linkage analysis and APL model to analyze coal industry chain in 2002-2012 years from macro aspect,the main contributions are as follows:(1)the article combines China's 42 sectors input-output table of 2002,2005,2007,2010 and 2012 into 29 sectors input-output table,and use the 29 sector tables as the research data.According to the calculation of 29 sectors input-output table of 2012,we found that coal industry and the production and supply industry of electricity and heat form an industrial chain which is one of the five most important industrial chains in China which proves that coal industry is of great importance in the process of China's social and economic development.(2)through the calculation of the 29 sectors national input-output table,we found the industries that has the greatest linkage with coal industry are chemical industry,metal smelting and rolling processing industry,general electric and other special equipment manufacturing,electricity and heat production and supply industry and the construction industry,the relationship between coal industry and these five industries has an increasing linkage;through the calculation of APL between the coal industry and the other industries we found the average propagation lengths is slightly rising between coal industry and these five industries,which means the number of middle department is growing between the coal industry and other industries and the economic distance is extending.Non-metallic mineral products industry and the gas industry respectively have a big drop linkage with coal industry in 2012,2007.(3)this paper contains 5 pieces of coal industry chain network based on 5 years,through the analysis of the coal industry chain network,we found that coal industry chain network has the greatest complexity during 2005 to 2007,industries are most closely connected in the network;from the year of 2010,the complexity of the industrial chain network began to decrease,the linkage between industries began to decline,to 2012,there were only six industries in the industrial chain network,and most of them are heavy industry,the phenomenon of the homogenize of coal industry chain did not change in 10 years.