Estimating The Cost Of Smog Pollution Reduction In China And Its Regional Sharing

Due to the extensive economic development model,the total consumption of fossil energy with high emissions of atmospheric pollutants such as coal and oil has risen sharply.As a result,cross-regional and composite air pollution such as SO₂,NO_X and PM_2.5 become increasingly severe.The annual average concentration of PM_2.5 in China has seriously exceeded the standard,and its regional characteristics are becoming increasingly prominent,which has brought huge health and economic losses to Chinese society,smog pollution has become the most prominent problem of atmospheric pollution in China.Taking into account the current territorial management model and the differences in development among provinces,accurate calculation and reasonable sharing of the cost of smog pollution reduction is the prerequisite for achieving regional cooperative governance,and it is of great significance for joint prevention and control of air pollution and policy formulation.First,this paper analyze the spatiotemporal differences of smog pollution in China,identify the key factors of interprovincial differences and calculate the contribution rate,then comprehensively uses the revised DICE model,C-D production function and Ramsey economic model to analyze the social costs and marginal emission reductions of smog pollution in China under different scenarios from the perspectives of consumer welfare and economic production.Finally,consider the development situation and emission reduction potential of each province,build a fair and effective energy-saving and emission reduction cost sharing and compensation mechanism,hoping to provide scientific reference for the management of smog pollution reduction and regional joint prevention and control.First this article base on the inter-provincial differences in smog pollution in China,the principal component analysis method was used to extract the key factors of smog pollution from population factors,economic development factors,industrialization factors,foreign investment factors,and energy intensity factors,and calculated their contribution rates.The study found that demographic factors and industrialization levels were the most important factors that contributed to the increase in PM_2.5emissions,which account for 43.80%and 42.81%,followed by economic development contributions with 26.04%,and foreign investment factors contribute the least.The“rebound effect”of energy intensity has a negative correlation with PM_2.5 concentration,that is,with the improvement of energy efficiency,the marginal cost of energy services is decreasing.Then,revises the DICE model,introduces the concept of cumulative concentration and emission reduction ratio,and calculates and compares the emission reduction cost of PM_2.5 pollution in China under different scenarios from a future perspective.The results of the study found that from the perspective of consumer welfare,PM_2.5 has incurred huge social costs.The unit social cost of PM_2.5 has increased continuously in the scenarios of level two,level one and WHO,from 17.520,27.253 and 61.320 billion yuan in 2000 increased to 666.509,1541.561 and 2332.781 billion yuan in 2030,with an average annual increase of 14.01%,16.46%,and 14.02%,which lowered the level of household consumption.From 2000 to 2030,the total social costs per unit of PM_2.5concentration in the three scenarios were 9808.114,22463.197 and 34328.399 million yuan.Therefore,the higher degree of emission reduction control,the greater social cost,and the greater impact on the people’s consumption and welfare.From the perspective of economic production,the marginal cost of PM_2.5 emission reductions in the scenarios of Level two,Level one and WHO increased from 284.688,1389.507 and 2392.249billion yuan increased to 582.832,2375.752 and 3916.649 billion yuan,and then reduced to 433.739,2482.064 and 4226.785 billion yuan.PM_2.5 emission reductions have a scale effect,the larger cumulative concentration,the higher emission reduction control,and the corresponding marginal abatement costs are greater.From the level two scenario to the level one scenario,the emission reduction rate increased to 2.10 times,and the marginal emission reduction cost increased to 3.66 times.From the level two scenario to the WHO scenario,the emission reduction rate increased to 2.37 times,and the marginal emission reduction cost was as high as 6.80 times.Therefore,the marginal emission reduction cost is the best under the level two scenario,the economic costs of the other two scenarios are too high.Next,fully consider the fairness and rationality of the distribution of regional smog pollution emission rights,build emission reduction cost sharing systems from the four dimensions of emission reduction responsibility,emission reduction capacity,emission reduction potential and economic development,and initial inter-provincial allocation of total emission reduction costs in different scenarios by TPOSIS model.Considering the issue of efficiency of emission reduction under the principle of fairness,for provinces with high emission reduction costs and limited emission reduction potential,transfer part of the emission reduction responsibility to provinces with lower emission reduction costs and greater emission reduction potential,while paying certain economic compensation.In order to fully tap the potential of energy saving and emission reduction in various provinces,construct a cost sharing and compensation mechanism for smog pollution emission reduction including efficiency and fairness factors,with a view to paying the lowest emission reduction cost to achieve the ultimate emission reduction goal.For example,in order to achieve the annual average emission reduction target concentration of 35ug/m³,Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces have the highest emission reduction costs.From 2000 to 2030,the total cost shared was 16335.685,15343.442,17035.407,14070.797,12957.785 and14167.995 billion yuan.These provinces bear the smallest responsibility for reducing emissions,but at the same time,they need to pay 1815.293,5516.758,4100.567,2576.280,2624.631 and 1981.620 billion yuan in compensation.At the same time,Inner Mongolia,Guizhou,Yunnan,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,Xinjiang and other provinces with less emission reduction costs and greater potential for emission reduction have assumed more responsibility for emission reduction.Considering fairness and regional development,they obtained economic compensation of 3811.192,3805.868,2981.854,3659.735,4071.250,4209.209 and 3788.390 billion yuan.Finally,the research is summarized,the relevant policy recommendations are proposed for haze pollution control,governance,and inter-provincial collaborative emission reduction.The paper includes 12 figures,29 tables,150 references.