| Hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD)is a type C infectious disease that targets infants and young children.It is highly contagious and spreads rapidly.Severe illness may endanger the lives of patients.A total of 278,901 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area from 2010-2016,which is a high incidence area of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hunan.The epidemic,distribution and spread of hand-foot-mouth disease are affected by meteorological and social factors.In this study,cases data,meteorological data,and social factors data of Chang-Zhu-Tan area were collected.The study combined the HFMD incidence with the geographic information system to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of HFMD incidence and identify the environment risk factors of HFMD transmission.The main research and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease.Case information on hand-foot-mouth disease in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area during 2010-2016 shows that the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease has a significant seasonality,and the number of cases has a high incidence in even-numbered years.In 2014,the number of hand-foot-mouth disease cases was the highest.The incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease has a distinct double peak,its main peak occurs in April-July each year,and the second peak usually occurs in September-December of each year.In terms of spatial distribution,the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease is highest in Shaoshan City,followed by Yuhua District and Changsha County.(2)Hand-foot-mouth disease related analysis.Using Geoda software,the global autocorrelation and local autocorrelation analysis of the incidence and incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area were conducted.The results showed that the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area was aggregative and there were hot spots in the area.(3)Spatiotemporal scans of hand-foot-mouth disease.A retrospective spatio-temporal scan analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan districts was performed using SatScan software.The time scale was monthly,and the spatial unit was county(city,district).The results showed that the time of the onset of hand-foot-mouth disease occurred in the period from April 2014 to June 2014 in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area during 2010-2016,and the spatial congregation mainly occurred in the northeast of the Chang-Zhu-Tan area.(4)Analysis of the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan districts.This study collected the daily meteorological data and hand-foot-mouth disease data from the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area during 2010-2016,and used the distributed-lag nonlinear model in R software to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on the development of hand-foot-mouth disease.The results showed that the average daily temperature,daily mean air pressure and sunshine hours were correlated with the rate of hand-foot-mouth disease,and the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease within different lag days in different regions were different.(5)Analysis of the influence of social factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan districts.Collecting the social factors in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan area from 2010 to 2016.The geographically weighted regression models in the ArcGIS software were used to analyze the impact of social factors on foot-mouth disease in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan districts.In different years,the social factors affecting the onset of hand-foot-mouth disease in the Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan regions are different.Among them,the output of rural service industry has a greater impact on hand-foot-mouth disease,and its impact is positive in the northeastern part of the Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan regions and the southeast is negative;followed by the level of urbanization.Per capita consumption expenditures,industrial income above designated size,non-state-owned economic investment,state-owned economic investment,and real estate development and investment are all related to the incidence of HFMD.Based on the analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease,and the spatial-temporal clustering,this study uses distributional lag model and geographically weighted regression model to analyze the impact factors of HFMD incidence in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area.The study of infectious diseases provides experience and lessons. |
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