| Objective Grasp the epidemiological characteristics,trend of HFRS and change rule in Qingdao,provide a scientific basis for disease prevention and control.Methods Collect the cases data of HFRS in Qingdao from 2005 to 2016 from China information system for disease control and prevention,meteorological data,such as mean temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration,and demographic data,which were carried out with SPSS software for descriptive research.The significance test was carried out by using the chi-square test.The ARIMA seasonal product model was established to predict the trend of incidence and incidence of HFRS in Qingdao in 2017.SPSS were used for statistical analysis in this research.Results Between 2005 and 2016,2298 cases were reported in Qingdao City,annual incidence successively was 2.75 / 100000,1.94 / 100000,1.66 / 100000,2.95 / 100000,2.03/ 100000,2.33 / 100000,2.88 / 100000,3.51 / 100000,2.66 / 100000,2.31 / 100000,1.70/100000,0.98 / 100000,the average annual incidence was 2.30 / 100000.The incidence of HFRS in different years had statistically significant(χ2=198.55,P<0.05).56 cases were dead,the annual mortality rates successively were 2.86%,2.01%,3.13%,1.75%,3.80%,1.65%,5.18%,0.97%,1.27%,1.93%,1.31%,and 5.62%.The average annual mortality rate was2.62%.There was no significant difference in the mortality of HFRS in different years(χ2=19.63,P > 0.05).Population distribution : The incidence rate in the 5-year-old age group was 0.19/100000,the incidence rate in the 9-39 age group was 1.50 / 100000,The incidence rate in the 40-64 age group was 3.77/100000,The incidence rate in the 65-year-old age and above group was 2.58 / 100000,and no case reports in other age groups.There were statistically significant differences in the incidence of HFRS in different age groups(χ2=573.56,P<0.05).The incidence of males was 3.38/100000,and the incidence of female was1.21/100000,and the ratio of men and women was 2.79:1.There were statistically significant differences in the incidence of HFRS in different genders(χ2=507.873,P<0.05).The characteristics of occupational distribution had little change,but each year is different.Mainly occupation were with farmers,workers,students,migrant workers,housework and unemployed,accounting for 94.92% of the total number of cases.Regional distribution : Each district had cases reported.The incidence rate ranged from high to low were Huangdao District(9.10 /100000),Jiaozhou City(5.66/100000),Pingdu City(3.58/100000),Jimo District(2.11/100000),Laixi City(1.32/100000),chengyang district(0.89/100000),shibei district(0.34/ 100000),licang district(0.29/100000),shinan district(0.02/100000),and laoshan district(0.02/100000).There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence of HFRS in different district(χ2=219.15,P <0.05).Time Distribution : The epidemic situation of HFRS in Qingdao had obviously seasonal feature.The annual epidemic peak lasted from October to November in winter.The highest incidence rate was in November,with a monthly incidence of 0.05/100000 to 0.13/100000.In 2012,the incidence rate was the highest in the year.The peak incidence put forward.The highest incidence occurred in October.The October incidence rate was 0.13/100,000.In November,the incidence was significantly reduced and showed a downward trend.Using morbidity data to establish an ARIMA model(model 1).The model 1 was ARIMA(0,2,2)(0,2,2)12.The sequences tended to be smooth at two times differential and seasonal differential.The seasonal autoregressive parameters of model 1 was-0.45,BIC was4.09,stationary R-square was 0.86,season autoregressive parameter was 1.31,error was0.11,and the residual sequence test was white noise sequence(Q=15.05,P>0.05).The monthly incidence in 2017 was 0.04/100000 to 0.23/100000.Meteorological factors were included as covariates in the ARIMA model and model 2 is established.From 2005 to 2015,the annual average temperature was 13.15.C in Qingdao,the average annual precipitation was 739.45 mm,the average annual sunshine time was 2144.96 h.Including meteorological factors into the ARIMA model,The model 2 was ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12.The sequences tended to be smooth at one times differential and seasonal differential.Model 2 BIC was-3.29,autoregressive parameter was 0.49,error was 0.07,seasonal autoregressive parameter was 0.71,error was 0.80,The average temperature parameter was 0.71,the error was 0.29,the precipitation parameter was-1.00,the error was0.11,the sunshine time parameter was 0.83,the error was 0.21,and residual sequence test was white noise sequence(Q=18.40,P >0.05).the absolute error between the actual value and the fitted value was 0.01 to 0.14,the relative error was 0.07 to 0.52 in 2016,and both of which were in the 95% confidence interval.Model fitting was better.The monthly incidence in 2017 was 0.09/100000 to 0.36/100000.Model 2 was relatively closed to the annual incidence rate in 2017(1.31/100000).Conclusions 1.The incidence of HFRS in Qingdao is dominated by middle-aged and elderly male farmers.The annual epidemic peak was mainly in autumn and winter.The highincidence areas were mainly in Huangdao district and Jiaozhou city.2.In the autumn and winter epidemic peak,the higher average temperature and sunshine time were positively correlated with the incidence of HFRS,and the higher precipitation was negatively correlated with the incidence of HFRS.The difference was statistically significant.3.ARIMA product seasonal model integrating meteorological factors(average temperature,precipitation and sunshine time)could better imitate and predict the incidence and incidence trend of HFRS in Qingdao in a short term. |
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