The State Space Model Of The HIV/AIDS Infection In China

This paper mainly studies the Chinese AIDS infection and the incubation period of people living with HIV,in China recently.At the beginning,based on the data the number of people who has been HIV infection or AIDS incidence from January 2004 to December 2012 which is acquired from the National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention China CDC,a sample data analysis for the epidemic situation of AIDS/HIV in recent years is analyzed.Distribution and the infection factors and age distribution of HIV/AIDS in China are discussed.Particularly,main routes of transmission of some provinces are introduced.Then,we have a time series analysis for the data that we have searched from the CDC is performed and their own ARMA model for the three time series of the number of HIV infections AIDS incidence and the death for AIDS are formulated,Stationarity of every province is analyzed and the epidemic situation of AIDS/HIV in 2013 is forecast.At last,a space station model to distributed the station of HIV infections and the AIDS incidence is formulated.Especially,the incubation period from HIV infection people to AIDS incidence people is estimated.What’s more,the probability distribution functions of the HIV and AIDS people are given.Finally,some specific corrections of the space station model are made and analysis the time from patients with HIV to AIDS incidence(the incubation period of HIV)is analyzed.