| Purpose:l Analysing the epidemiologic characters of HBV in Xiamen city,building ARIMA model and predicting the monthly incidence of HBV in Xiamen city in 2017,providing theory evidence for preventive treatment of HBV in Xiamen city.2Understand the level of hepatitis B immunity in the Xiamen population,evaluate the effect of the hepatitis B immunization program,and provide reference and suggestions for adjustment of immunization planning strategies.3Investigate the relationship between CXCL14,TLR2 gene polymorphisms and disease progression after chronic HBV infection,thus increasing understanding of the hepatitis B and providing further assistance for treatment.Process:1 Collecting and statistically describing the incidence data of Hepatitis B in Xiamen City from 2005 to 2016.Using SPSS 21.0 to establish the ARIMA model and predict the incidence of hepatitis B in 2017.Use ICC analysis to verify model prediction reliability.2 Multi-stage stratified random sampling method was used to select 2116 resident population in Xiamen.Questionnaires were collected from the selected population and blood samples were collected.Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to detect HBs.3 211 newly diagnosed chronic hepatitis B patients were recruited,and collecting the general information and operateing liver biopsy.Blood samples of patients were collected and the human genome was extracted.Gene polymorphisms were detected by MALDI-TOF-MS.Control group is patients with mild chronic hepatitis B judged by the severity of inflammation reported by liver biopsy,and patients with moderate or severe chronic hepatitis B were included as case groups.The t-test was used to analyze the quantitative data of the two groups of patients.The chi-square test was used to analyze the correlation between the qualitative data and CXCL14,TLR2 polymorphisms and hepatitis activity,and the odds ratio and 95%confidence interval were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression analysis to assess the association betweenCXCL14、TLR2 gene polymorphisms and the progression of chronic hepatitis B.Result:1 The prevalence of hepatitis B reported incidence and incidence in Xiamen①The total reported cases of hepatitis B in 2005-2016 was 16,656;Acute、chronic,and unclassified cases accounted for 19.4%,63.5%,and 17.1%,respectively.The average annual incidence of hepatitis B is 45.70/100 000,the incidence is decreasing by years.②The incidence of males was higher than females;There was a difference in incidence among age groups;The incidence of hepatitis B in children under the age of 15 was significantly lower than that in the elder age groups;The occupational categories with the most reported cases were workers,household chores,and agriculture and forestry workers except for unknown,the minimum is technicians,retirees,students,and children;In the six district-level administrative units of Xiamen city,the cumulative incidence and regional incidence is the highest in Siming District(5570,54.58/100,000),The least cases is from Haicang District(1101 cases),the lowest incidence is in Xiang’an(20.25/100,000).③There were 2203 cases of acute hepatitis B has been reportted,the average incidence is 8.87/100,000;And 167 cases of children under age 15,the average incidence rate is 2.96/100,000.④The model ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,0)12 has been established,the fitting effect of the model was good.The result of ICC analysis was Cronbach’s Alpha=0.852,P=0.002,and the prediction reliability of the model was good.2 The survey about Hepatitis B immunity level①2116 residents has been surveyed,the positive rate of anti-HBs was 67.39%(standardized value was 67.53%);The first injection of hepatitis B vaccine was 53.73%,and the whole injection of vaccination was 51.70%.The vaccination rate and antibody positive rate of 1-59 year-olds were 74.13%and 68.73%,respectively.② The positive rates of male and female anti-HBs were 65.13%and 69.00%,respectively;The vaccination rates in male and female were 63.75%and 46.67%,and the vaccination rate was higher in male than females;the anti-HBs positive rate was the highestin in<1 year old age group was96.7%,7-14-year-old group was the lowest was 41.8%.The vaccination rate of children under 15 was higher than that of young adults over 15,were 98.4%、17.6%respectively.There were differences in anti-HBs positive rate and vaccination rate among different occupations and education groups.3CXCL14,TLR2 Polymorphism and Chronic Hepatitis B Progression①211 patients were included in the study,151 in the control group,and 60 in the case group.The proportion of males in the case group was significantly higher than that in the control group(85.0%,61.5%,P = 0.001).The BMI of the control group was smaller than that of the case group.The BMI mean(standard deviation)of the two groups was 21.39(2.93)and22.40(3.45),respectively,P<0.05.The virus genotypes were type B(81.0%)and type C(19.0%).② There was no significant difference in the SNP of CXCL14 rs2237061,rs2237062,rs2547 genotypes between the case group and the control group,P>0.05.③The TT genotype of TLR2 rs3804099 is a risk factor for chronic hepatitis B.Compared to the CC genotype,the OR and 95%CI of the TT genotype was 7.004(2.330-21.059),P<0.05.Conclusion:① The incidence of Hepatitis B in Xiamen City from 2005 to 2016 showed a declining trend.It is predicted that the incidence of Hepatitis B in Xiamen City in 2017 will not fluctuate significantly with a slight downward trend compared with previous years.②The prevalence of hepatitis B is higher in men,25-year-old people,workers,and household chores.③The incidence of acute hepatitis B in Xiamen residents is higher than national level,and the incidence of hepatitis B in children under the age of 15 is within the national average level.2 ①The hepatitis B vaccination and anti-HBs positive rates in Xiamen residents have increased compared with previous years.②The level of HBsAg positive and vaccination rates of residents is inconsistent,we can screen and reseed HBV vaccine in people with low HBs positive rates.3 ①CXCL14 rs2237061,rs2237062,rs2547 loci SNPs are not associated with the progression of chronic hepatitis B disease.② TLR2 rs3804099 locus SNP is associated with the progression of chronic hepatitis B disease.TT genotype is a risk factor for the progression of chronic hepatitis B disease. |
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