Research Among South-East Junggar Basin Plague Epidemic Situation Of Animal

Objective:To describe and analyze the epidemiological distribution characteristics and trends of plague in the natural foci of the plague in the Junggar Basin by conventional statistical methods and spatial application techniques,and to improve the prediction,prediction and early warning capabilities of plague prevention and control,and to prevent the outbreak of human plague.Methods:1.Used a retrospective survey method to describe and analyze the prevalence of plague among animals in the study area from 2014 to 2017;2.The habitat map of the plague foci in the southeastern Junggar Basin was described by the spatial map method.3.Multiple linear regression was used to screen for factors affecting the serological positive rate of the Rhombomys opimus.4.According to the core idea of Nearest Neighbor Analysis(NNA),the spatial distribution of positive results of plague test in recent years is judged;5,Used Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)to further evaluate the serological surveillance results of Rhombomys opimus in local areas in recent years.Results:(1)In the southeastern part of the Junggar Basin,Xinjiang,the total number of rodents was 2,468 and the number of infectious rats was 1907.The total number of sera was 2,938,and the positive number was 142.(2)The difference between the seroprevalence rates of the Rhombomys opimusin the four regions was statistically significant(c~2=44.102,P<0.05);The difference between the seroprevalence rates of the Rhombomys opimusin the four years was statistically significant(c~2=30.36,P<0.05).(3)Multiple linear regression analysis showed a positive correlation between seroprevalence and rainfall in September of that year(P<0.05).There was no simple linear relationship between the seroprevalence of Rhombomys opimusand the rate of sputum infection,body sputum index,annual rainfall,annual temperature,May rainfall,May temperature,and September temperature(P>0.05).(4)The distribution of serological positive results in the plague foci in the southeastern part of the Junggar Basin belongs to the cluster distribution pattern.After risk assessment of seropositive results in local foci,the area was divided into three types of risk areas.Conclusion:(1)There was no human epidemic situation in the plague foci in the southeastern part of the Junggar Basin.The plague epidemic among animals is frequent,and the epidemic situation was mainly distributed in Midong District of Urumqi and Wujiaqu City.(2)The serological positive rates of the Rhombomys opimus in different years and regions were different;the serological positive rate of the Rhombomys opimus increased with the increase of rainfall in September of that year.For the conclusions of this study,the following countermeasures and suggestions are proposed:(1)Strengthen the monitoring of spring pre-existence and two types of sentinel points in high-risk areas;(2)Implement a graded“hot point”prevention and control program to enhance the dynamic sensitivity of early warning;(3)Map geographical habitats of plague foci and so on.